GEN Z’S ROLE IN SHAPING THE DIGITAL ECONOMY
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MARCH 2021 GEN Z’S ROLE IN SHAPING THE DIGITAL ECONOMY 1 Gen Z’s role in shaping the digital economy TABLE OF CONTENTS Foreword 2 Executive summary 4 1. Introduction 10 2. Who is Gen Z? 12 2.1 Gen Z will mature into an engine of growth 14 2.2 Characteristics of Gen Z 14 3. Technology and the labour market 18 3.1 The changing face of automation 19 3.2 Digital society and the labour market over the past decade 21 4. Implications of COVID-19 for Gen Z 24 4.1 The immediate economic impact of COVID-19 25 4.2 Recessions and young workers 26 4.3 The structural implications of COVID-19 26 5. How Augmented Reality is changing our future 32 5.1 AR’s emerging role as an engine for change 33 5.2 AR’s steep growth potential 34 5.3 Which skills will be key to thriving in the AR-enabled workplace? 38 6. A blueprint for the future 40 2 Gen Z’s role in shaping the digital economy FOREWORD We believe that this generation of young people will play a vital role in driving the postpandemic recovery and digital economy and find many reasons to be optimistic about their future. We know this runs contrary to popular opinion. It is abundantly clear the pandemic has exacerbated many of the challenges this generation faces. Their education has been disrupted, university courses have been postponed and they’ve had to struggle through disjointed, remote learning. There is a shrinking pool of entry-level jobs and uncertainty about what the future of work will look like. They are missing out on interaction with other young people for months at a time and there are concerns about the impact on their mental health and wellbeing. All of this has led to the commonly held view that the future for ‘Generation COVID’ is likely to be much more challenging than for previous generations. While for now the pandemic has arguably disrupted this group more than any other, we are inspired by the world that they are trying to create and our experience at Snap is at odds with the prevailing narrative. All the time we see the ingenuity and huge potential of Generation Z – from our youngest colleagues to people who use the platform every day – their approach to challenges and problem-solving, their creativity, adaptability and drive to use technology for good, is an inspiration. At Snap, we see a hugely activist generation who care deeply about the world they live in and the impact of their actions on others. A group who thrive on disruption, change and fast-paced living; who don’t believe in onesize-fits-all approaches on everything from gender identity to learning and careers. And, as we’re seeing around the world, they are also an increasingly positive force in our democratic systems; it was youth-led movements which drove mass action on the climate crisis and which, last summer, held corporations and institutions to account on issues such as diversity, representation and inequality. For this report we have partnered with Oxford Economics, to reach behind the negative headlines and build an evidence-based view of what the future looks like for young people today. We have included insights from policy experts across education, industry, the labour market, technology & the future of work. We have analysed a range of data sources and carried out our own field research. From this, a new picture has emerged, which shows clearly how the unique qualities Gen Z possess will equip them well for the seismic changes we’re all living through. By recognising and understanding these trends, we hope to raise awareness both at Snap and across the wider tech industry about Gen Z’s unique capabilities and how we can capitalise on the creativity and adaptability of young people, in particular, to drive the recovery and the digital economy in the future. 3 Gen Z’s role in shaping the digital economy To get there, our research indicates that policymakers must, in the short term, prioritise plugging the educational attainment gap, either through small group learning or programmes specifically targeting disadvantaged children. More broadly, we’ll highlight in the report, the need to retool our education systems to be fit for the Fourth Industrial Revolution, while supporting people to adapt to the permanent and exciting shifts in our economy. Crucially, as our work shows, far from being a generation lost to COVID-19, the very nature of the changes brought about by the pandemic neatly fit into Gen Z’s existing aptitudes. The labour market is evolving towards jobs that demand more digital skills, not fewer. Meanwhile burgeoning technologies like Augmented Reality – in greater demand than ever due to social restrictions – are set to become more ingrained into our daily lives. These are trends Generation Z are poised to lead on. And, combined with their unique attributes, the digital acceleration brought about by the pandemic, we might just see them taking the lead sooner than any of us would have thought possible. I speak for all of Snap when I say we are hugely excited to see where they take us. Claire Valoti, VP International, Snap Inc. 4 Gen Z’s role in shaping the digital economy EXECUTIVE SUMMARY We have set out to understand how the evolution of the labour market and the changes caused by the COVID-19 pandemic can be expected to shape future demand for aptitudes and skills and what this means for Gen Z—the latest fully fledged generational cohort encompassing those born between the mid-1990s and 2010. Recent estimates suggest that Gen Z is now the world’s largest cohort, accounting for roughly a third of the global population.1 We have collected evidence and analysed trends across six markets: Australia, France, Germany, the Netherlands, the United Kingdom (UK), and the United States (US). The stories told and the conclusions drawn are, therefore, most relevant to these countries but are broadly applicable across the OECD. WHO IS GEN Z? 1 https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-08-20/gen-z-to-outnumber-millennials-within-a-year-demographic-trends Particularly in more advanced economies, Gen Zers are currently on the periphery of the labour market. Over the next 10 years, they will become an engine of economic growth. Our modelling projects that the number in work across markets covered will roughly treble to 87 million by 2030. Moreover, the combination of more experience and a switch to more full-time working patterns will see this group command higher salaries— our forecasts suggest a 150% increase in average earnings by 2030 in real terms. These dynamics will see Gen Z become a significantly more important independent source of consumer spending. Our projections indicate that they will support over $3.0 trillion of spending in 2030 across our six focus markets, an approximate six-fold increase on 2019. Much has been made of the fact that Gen Z will be the first wholly digitally native generation. Our survey research indicates that, compared to older generations, this is associated with a greater familiarity with, and aptitude for using, digital technology in everyday settings. 5 Gen Z’s role in shaping the digital economy Collating information from a wide range of knowledge-based questions, we have developed a digital competence index measure. Pooling responses across our survey, Gen Z’s average competence score was 2.5% higher than Millennials and over 8% higher than Gen X. Beyond digital aptitude, our research has highlighted three Gen Z traits that we think are likely to serve them well in the future workplace: • Agility: in interviews with technology entrepreneurs, a recurring theme was that Gen Z workers tend to be adept at absorbing information and reacting to new challenges as they occur. 2 https://theharrispoll.com/generation-create-gen-z-might-be-the-most-creative-generation-yet-poll-says/ • Creativity: past surveys have persistently found that Gen Z are significantly more likely to describe themselves as creative and undertake creative activities compared to elder cohorts.2 Our research shines light on the digital element of this, with Gen Z significantly more likely to know how to create and design various types of digital content. • Curiosity: whether a product of their youth or a genuine cohort effect, Gen Zers were significantly more likely to report that they were engaging in various forms of informal learning. *Figures are combined totals for all six markets: Australia, France, Germany, the Netherlands, UK, and US Gen Z’s share of total employment will rise rapidly, from 10% in 2019 to 30% in 2030. Gen Z disposable incomes will increase almost seven-fold, from around $460 billion in 2019 to $3.2 trillion in 2030. Gen Z’s consumer spending will increase more than six-fold, from $467 billion in 2019 to $3.0 trillion in 2030, equivalent to 11% of total household spending. GEN Z TO PLAY A SIGNIFICANT ROLE IN THE ECONOMY BY 2030* By 2030, Gen Z will make up almost a third of the workforce Their incomes will balloon over the next 10 years They will become the engine of consumer spending 6 Gen Z’s role in shaping the digital economy TECHNOLOGY AND THE LABOUR MARKET Throughout modern history, technology and the labour market have been intertwined. One principal channel through which this has occurred is automation—the process through which machines and new technology take on workplace tasks previously performed by humans. Previous research has demonstrated that the next wave of automation, led by advances in artificial intelligence (AI) and data analytics, will heighten the premium on advanced cognitive skills such as creativity and critical thinking. Whereas the previous wave of digital automation primarily affected tasks that required routine manual and cognitive skills, AI has the potential to be much more pervasive, affecting, if not displacing, the role of many high-skilled occupations.3 The upshot is that being able to challenge orthodoxy and develop original solutions are traits which will be increasingly valued by firms. By extension, the importance of lifelong learning is set to rise with workers required to adapt to more rapidly evolving demands. Beyond automation, digital technology is a major driver of skills due to its pervasive influence on so many aspects of how we live— entertainment, travel, communication, shopping etc. A prime example in the past decade was social media. As membership of social platforms grew exponentially, the importance of this medium for firms to engage with and influence their customers rose accordingly. Moreover, this trend had spillover consequences with the associated proliferation of data contributing to the wider need for data analytics skills within organisations and the increased need for infrastructure which can securely house this information. These trends were all borne out by our analysis of jobs postings data covering Australia, the UK, and the US. This example demonstrates that the technological changes which might drive digital skills demand over the next decade will be those which will fundamentally change our everyday lives, but which may be relatively nascent today. 3 Marguerita and Saint-Martin, Anne Lane, “The Impact of Artificial Intelligence on the Labour Market: what do we know so far?” (OECD Social, Employment and Migration Working Paper, No. 256, OECD, January 2021), 61. STRUCTURAL IMPLICATIONS OF COVID-19 The coronavirus pandemic has already had a very visible impact on the labour market, pushing millions into unemployment or temporary inactivity. However, longer-term, our research has identified the following structural trends that will form an important part of the labour market legacy of COVID-19: • An educational attainment gap: in many advanced economies, the pandemic has forced a temporary shift to online learning. This change has been particularly disruptive for children from disadvantaged households who lack access to the requisite digital technology, with early evidence suggesting that it has led to lower attainment levels. • A digital accelerant: the imposition of social distancing has heightened the importance of digital technology. This change has been ubiquitous—touching on the way we communicate, shop, work, exercise, learn, and entertain ourselves. • A spur to automation: it is said that necessity is the mother of invention, and this is certainly the case with automation. Past research has demonstrated that recession periods can account for a large majority of this activity, so COVID-19 is likely to trigger a new wave of automation. • A sectoral disrupter: more so than previous recessions, COVID-19 will disrupt previous sectoral patterns of production. Across markets studied, 2020 saw greater variation in sectoral performance compared to the previous recession. 7 Gen Z’s role in shaping the digital economy PUTTING THIS ALL TOGETHER The forces unleashed by the latest wave of digital technology, and accelerated by COVID-19, will be highly disruptive in the workplace. These changes will place a higher premium on technological know-how and cognitive skills such as creativity and critical thinking. Workers needing to switch careers and those whose responsibilities are fundamentally altered by AI will need to adapt, upgrading and potentially learning new skills. As shown, such structural trends play to the relative attributes of Gen Z: agility; creativity; curiosity; and digital competence. AUGMENTED REALITY: A TECHNOLOGY THAT WILL EXEMPLIFY THIS STORY Augmented Reality (AR) technology has the potential to symbolise this process. It allows digital content and information to be overlaid on the physical world. Although its initial applications predominantly lay in the world of entertainment, it has increasingly become a tool for change among more innovative businesses, a trend that has been accelerated by the pandemic. Market research studies highlight the enormous potential of AR, with the market projected to expand four-fold by 2023. Longer-term, a combination of enablers seem can be expected to underpin a continued steep growth trajectory for which would see AR become a mainstream aspect of the workplace: • Revolutionising retail: one key driver for the pick-up in AR adoption over the past 12 months has been consumer brands leveraging the technology to replicate parts of the instore experience. AR’s expansion into this burgeoning market can be an important pillar of growth for the next decade. • Widespread business utility: as we demonstrate in this report, AR’s applications extend well beyond e-commerce with companies, from agriculture to education, already deriving utility from the technology across multiple business functions. • 5G-enhanced: the rollout of the next generation of mobile communication technology will substantially improve 5G utility, facilitating richer and more immersive experiences on the go. • Low adoption barriers: with many applications available by a Web Browser or smartphone App, consumers have nearuniversal access to AR experiences and, in contrast to VR, need not invest in additional equipment. • Transforming marketing strategy: AR offers a unique platform to engage with customers, in a style that resonates and helps to build an emotional connection. Taken together with the above drivers, this will be increasingly achieved at scale, a potent mix for marketing and brand building. Moreover, as the leading users of open source AR platforms such as Lens Studio, this cohort have a much stronger natural affinity with this technology, a point confirmed by our analysis. Gen Z’s average AR competence score was 17% higher than Millennials and 34% higher than Gen X. 8 Gen Z’s role in shaping the digital economy A BLUEPRINT FOR THE FUTURE Our research has struck a relatively optimistic tone. Clearly though the pandemic, together with the next wave of technological change, will create major challenges for society. Supported by discussions with a range of experts, we have generated a call to action centred around the five themes set out below. More specific recommendations around each theme can be found in section six of this document. • Plugging the educational attainment gap: the disruption to Gen Z’s formal education represents COVID-19’s biggest structural threat to their this cohort’s prosperity— action to correct this associated attainment gap is urgently required. • Supporting economic recovery whilst not impeding structural adjustment: policymakers face a delicate balancing act in the near-term in trying to minimise labour market scarring. Timing the transition from employmentprotection to hiring incentive and re-skillingbased programmes will be crucial. • Maximising the potential of digital technology to meet the re-skilling challenge: despite being the root cause of the problem, digital technology can be fundamental to the solution. AR, massive open online courses (MOOCs), and crowd-based tools can become important contributors to re-skilling. • Achieving a mindset shift around lifelong learning: according to survey data, a majority of adults across the OECD do not want to engage in further training. There is no silver bullet to achieving a substantial shift in this mindset but governments can assist and section six identifies a set of principles which should inform policy design. • Refitting education to the new Industrial age: more broadly, without reform, the formal education system will become increasingly out-of-step with the workplace. Structural reform that promotes problem-based learning, student agency and reduces the emphasis on standardised testing is required. 9 Gen Z’s role in shaping the digital economy 10 Gen Z’s role in shaping the digital economy 1. INTRODUCTION The outbreak of the coronavirus pandemic in early 2020, and the deep global recession triggered by measures to contain its spread, have had a hugely detrimental impact on society. The downturn has been notable for its unevenness, landing disproportionately on industries which rely on social contact such as hospitality, live entertainment, and physical non-essential retail. This has led to concerns that the economic impact will land heavily on younger workers, who were more reliant on these sectors for jobs coming into the crisis. Moreover, it will certainly be more difficult for new graduates to secure 4 Monica, Joyce, Robert and Norris Keeiller, Agnes Costa Dias, “COVID-19 and the career prospects of young people” (Briefing Note, Institute for Fiscal Studies, July 2020). roles in an environment where the economy is operating well below full capacity. The fear is that they will suffer from what economists call “scarring”—persistent negative impacts on their potential earnings power and future employment prospects.4 However, all this discussion neglects the role of COVID-19 as a disruptor and digital accelerant. When evaluating the long-term implications of any event for a group in the labour market, understanding such structural effects is key. Moreover, judging by past recessions, 2020 is also likely to bring forward the latest wave of automation technologies. To create a more rounded picture, this study has investigated how these trends will affect demand for skills and how they match up to the relative attributes of Gen Z. This has involved a multi-pronged research programme (described below) focused around six markets: Australia, France, Germany, the Netherlands, the United Kingdom, and the United States. For the purpose of this report, we have considered them as a collective. At times, we refer to the aggregate evidence pooled across these six countries as ‘global’ but would, of course, acknowledge that the findings should only be generalised to other highincome economies. HOW HAVE WE DONE THIS? The question we have sought to address is challenging and complex. As such, we have called upon evidence from a wide variety of sources as part of work, including: • Job postings data purchased from Burning Glass (BG) covering the period between 2014 and 2019. • A consumer survey of individuals across all six markets in scope. Quota sampling was used to ensure a broadly even mix between different generations, defined as those aged 16 to 24 (Gen Z), 25 to 39 (Millennials), and 40 to 55 (Gen X). • Interviews with 13 AR experts working across the markets in our study. • Web scraping techniques to help collect information on the current size and economic contribution of the AR sector globally. • Desk-based research including a literature review and the collection of official data to help support and validate our propositions which lie outside the scope of the above. • Discussions with experts from various fields including economics, education, skills, and industrial policy. These have informed our calls to action. The objective of this report is to document the major findings and draw out the most salient implications of our research. As such, we have only provided light methodological detail across the report. However, a comprehensive methodology report can also be found online for interested readers. 11 Gen Z’s role in shaping the digital economy 12 Gen Z’s role in shaping the digital economy 2. WHO IS GEN Z? Gen Z is generally described as those born between the mid-1990s and 2010. Recent estimates have suggested that they are now the largest generational cohort on earth, accounting for almost onethird of the global population in 2019. Across the six markets covered in our study, Gen Z’s population share is much lower, but they still numbered some 106 million in 2019. Gen Z is the first wholly digitally native generation— those brought up from birth to use digital technologies and social platforms as the primary means of communication, entertainment, and consumption. They have increasingly attracted the attention of researchers, as they start to mature into the workforce. This chapter explores how this cohort is set to become a driving force of the economy and describes the attitudes and characteristics which set them apart from preceding generations. OVERVIEW • Gen Z is the first wholly digitally native generational cohort. Reflecting their youth most of this cohort are on the periphery of the labour market but this is set to change. • Our projections across the six markets imply that those in-work will triple to almost 90 million by 2030. As they gain more experience, knowledge, and skills and transition increasingly to full-time work, the average earnings of this group will grow by 250% in real terms. • This will drive a massive uplift in their independent disposable income which we expect to hit $3.2 trillion by 2030— equivalent to 11% of these economies’ total. • Gen Z display a higher level of digital competence compared to older cohorts who currently dominate the workforce, stemming from being more accomplished in the areas of content creation, communication, and understanding of lenses and filters. • Gen Z’s attributes seem ideally tailored to a post-pandemic work environment that will be more digitally charged and dynamic. Their agility, curiosity, and creativity are traits that seem set to be in demand in future workplace. 13 Gen Z’s role in shaping the digital economy Their consumer spending will increase more than six-fold, from $467 billion in 2019 to $3.0 trillion in 2030. This is equivalent to 11% of total household spending. Gen Z’s share of total employment will nearly treble over the next ten years. Gen Z incomes will increase almost seven-fold by 2030. Gen Z show higher levels of digital competence than their elders. (index, global average = 100) 1996 2010 FUTURE POWERHOUSE OF THE GLOBAL WORKFORCE KEY DRIVER OF INCOME GROWTH HIGH LEVELS OF DIGITAL COMPETENCE 2019 28 million/ 10% 87 million / 30% 2030 14.8% 12.8% 10.6% 9.8% 7.1% 8.0% 35.3% 32.0% Netherlands United States France Germany United Kingdom Australia 31.1% 29.1% 26.0% 24.0% GEN Z WILL MATURE INTO ENGINE OF GROWTH 16–24 25–39 40–55 104.1 101.6 96.1 14 Gen Z’s role in shaping the digital economy 2.1 GEN Z WILL MATURE INTO AN ENGINE OF GROWTH As the majority of our Gen Z cohort join the workforce, our forecasts imply that the number of Gen Z in employment will more than treble to 87 million people by 2030 in the six markets This means that Gen Z are forecast to account for 30% of total employment in 2030, up from just over 10% in 2019. With greater experience, knowledge and skills will also come greater earnings power. Indeed, workers, on average, enjoy faster wage growth during the early years of their career. Based on past trends and projected macroeconomic changes, we expect the average earnings of Gen Z to increase by almost 250% by 2030 to over $42,000. Putting these trends in employment and earnings together, the forecasts show that Gen Z’s income from work will balloon from $440 billion to more than $3.5 trillion by 2030. To put this in context, their share of economy-wide earnings will rise from less than 3% in 2019 to 20% in 2030. Even after paying tax on their incomes, Gen Z will have a disposable income of $3.2 trillion in 2030, seven times the $460 billion in 2019. Accounting for the likely savings that Gen Z workers will make, their total consumer spending will be $3.0 trillion— equivalent to 11% of total household spending across the six economies. 2.2 CHARACTERISTICS OF GEN Z Our survey of members of the three generations either in or entering the labour market identifies some important differences in attitudes and aptitudes. These are examined in more depth below. Gen Z possess higher levels of digital competence We used the results of our survey to create a measure of digital competence based on respondents’ evaluations of their own knowledge and understanding of everyday digital tasks. A wide range of questions were used to collect information on the respondent’s knowledge and understanding of digital technology across six broad themes. Answers to each question have been normalised and aggregated into an index where a score of 100 corresponds to the average of all respondents across the seven markets. Based on this measure, Gen Z’s overall level of digital competence is higher, on average, than both Gen X and Millennials, as shown in Fig. 1. ×3 Gen Z employment is forecast to more than treble by 2030, with this group accounting for 30% of total jobs compared to just 10% today. $3.0 trillion Forecast independent spending power of Gen Z in 2030 compared to $460 billion in 2019. 15 Gen Z’s role in shaping the digital economy 5 Dell Technologies. Gen Z: The future has arrived. https://www.delltechnologies.com/en-us/perspectives/gen-z.htm?linkId=58995076 Digging deeper, the outperformance of Gen Z was driven by three main areas: AR, communication and content creation. On the other hand, older respondents in our survey tended to report that they had more advanced knowledge and understanding of topics related to information security. Generational differences were much more modest across the other two components of our digital index: buying and selling online (e-commerce) and gathering and verifying information. This fits with earlier research exercises such as work carried out by Dell Technologies in 2018. Its survey of 12,000 Gen Z secondary and post-secondary students in 17 countries found that almost all had used technology as part of their formal education while 80% wanted to work with cuttingedge technology in their future careers. Seventy-three per cent rated their technology literacy as good or excellent and 68% said they had above-average coding skills.5 Fig. 1: Digital competence index by age cohort: global sample Fig. 2: Digital competence score by age cohort: global sample Index, global average = 100 Source: YouGov data, Oxford Economics analysis 96 16 to 24 25 to 39 40 to 59 94 92 98 100 102 106 104 104.1 101.6 96.1 Index, global average = 100 Source: YouGov data, Oxford Economics analysis 16 to 24 25 to 39 40 to 59 Security AR competence E-commerce Gathering and verifying information Content creation and distribution Communication 120 115 110 105 100 95 90 85 80 16 Gen Z’s role in shaping the digital economy Gen Z are creative Creativity is the key driving factor behind Gen Z’s digital strengths. Online platforms give Gen Z an outlet for their creativity, and Gen Z have in turn adapted well to the technology. Using an arsenal of digital tools such as AR lenses, filters, emojis, face swaps, and short videos, Gen Z not only express themselves and communicate with others, but also use these tools and platforms creatively for advocacy, art, and entrepreneurship. 6 https://atomicdigital.design/ 7 https://www.wearetactical.com/ 8 https://exitsimulation.com/ Various studies indicate that Gen Z consider themselves more creative than other generations. A new study by JWT Intelligence and Snap Inc. finds that half (51%) of Gen Z believe their generation is more creative than previous generations. A more recent study by Cassandra research on behalf of Snap Inc. finds that 76% of global Gen Z say they are creative, significantly more than older generations. Further, Gen Z’s digital creativity has a counterpart in the analogue world too: 77% of Gen Z in the JWT study indicated that they spend free time offline drawing, journaling, or playing an instrument. Gen Z are agile Moving beyond our survey, our case study interviews, focused on the AR sector, have also provided us with an opportunity to understand more about the distinguishing generational characteristics of Gen Z. The easy-to-use infrastructure that AR platforms provide means companies can look for staff with soft skills as well as those with formal training. Many entrepreneurs said that this favoured Gen Z who had picked up a range of skills at school and through friends. For example, Tess Inglis and Antoine Vu at Paris-based Atomic Digital Design say Gen Z express themselves differently than older generations, tend to be more agile, and are much more open to change. Projects can sometimes change, and the work done needs to change to accommodate this. They say it is generally the younger generations who are more able to accept this change while those from older cohorts may take change more personally and find it harder.6 Mike Khouri, managing director of Tactical, a fullservice agency based in Dubai, says Gen Z are born into the culture of digital media, and are native users of AR meaning they are open to innovation. He adds that Gen Z will be some of the quickest to learn from the current pandemic and their behaviours will adapt accordingly.7 Berlinbased digital artist Aaron Jablonski, who uses AR and face tracking technology in his daily work, agrees Gen Z are the first generation to grow up immersed in social networks. He says they are constantly surrounded by information which seems to have influenced how they operate in the workplace.8 Although the main decision makers at Hamburg-based immersive agency Headraft are Gen X, the team members from Gen Z play a critical role in terms of creative work Gen Z express themselves differently to older generations, tend to be agile, and are much more open to change. Projects can sometimes change, and the work done needs to change to accommodate this. Gen Z are good at picking up new software and technology as they have grown up around it. Gen Z also understand how to build concepts for other members of Gen Z which makes them very useful. 17 Gen Z’s role in shaping the digital economy with AR video effects, says founder Julian Weiss. They can absorb lots of information fast which is important given the volume of data available. He adds younger generations are more in touch with what other people in their demographic want, which makes them able to adapt their ideas to suit people of their own age.9 David Loughnan at Australia’s immersive technology creative agency Unbnd, says Gen Z have been exposed to smartphones and software their entire lives and have an instinctive understanding of technology. They have a better understanding of how to design mobile products and services for their own demographic.10 9 https://www.headraft.com/ 10 https://unbnd.com.au/ Gen Z are eager to maximise the opportunities afforded by digital learning tools Our survey shows that members of Gen Z are much more likely to embrace digital technology for both formal learning and more personal self-education. Unsurprisingly, the number of Gen Z who took part in formal online classes was much greater than Gen X or Millennials, as the former were more likely to be in full time education. More than half had undertaken distance learning compared with around a third of the other two cohorts. While more than 60% of those were taking part in secondary or undergraduate education, 15% were doing postgraduate education online while 13% were taking professional qualifications. When it comes to informal learning rather than organised education, as Fig. 3 shows, Gen Z were more likely to take part in a wide range of informal online lessons or to find information using digital technology. Almost one in five participated in an online class that they were taking just for their personal edification. They were also more likely to use an online chat forum to help them solve a problem and to watch a lecture online. Fig. 3: Participation in online learning by age cohort: global sample Share of respondents by age Participated in an online class that you’re taking as part of a formal qualification Participated in an online class that you’re taking just for fun Used an online chat forum to help you gure out a problem Watched an online video to help you complete an everyday task Watched a lecture online to learn about a new topic 0% 45% 40% 35% 30% 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% Source: YouGov data, Oxford Economics analysis 16 to 24 25 to 39 40 to 59 18 Gen Z’s role in shaping the digital economy 3. TECHNOLOGY AND THE LABOUR MARKET Throughout modern history, the labour market and technological change have been inextricably linked. More often this relationship is framed within the context of the world of work. Notably, technology supports ‘automation’— the replacement of certain human tasks by machines. These ‘direct’ effects are, of course, highly influential. Demand for skills, however, is also sensitive to the ‘indirect’ channels through which technological progress transforms how we live. As a result, firms continually adapt the way that they deliver products and services to their customers with knock-on effects for what they require from their staff. OVERVIEW • Throughout modern history technological advances have major structural effects on skills demand through the process of automation. • The next wave of automation is set to heighten the premium on advanced cognitive skills such as creativity and critical thinking. • By extension, the importance of lifelong learning is set to rise with workers required to adapt to more rapidly evolving demands. • Over the past decade, the growth of social platforms, and the associated proliferation of data, have had substantial spillover effects for demand for digital skills. Jobs postings data covering Australia, the United States, and the UK over the past five years bears this out. • ‘Social media’, ‘Cloud solutions’ and various skill clusters related to data analysis have been among the most important contributors to the growth in demand for digital skills during this period. • This suggests that the technological changes which might drive digital demand in the labour market over the next decade may be those with the potential to transcend everyday life, but which are relatively nascent today. 19 Gen Z’s role in shaping the digital economy 3.1 THE CHANGING FACE OF AUTOMATION 11 C and Osborne, M Frey, “The Future of Employment: How Susceptible are Jobs to Computerisation?” (Oxford Martin School Working Paper, 2013). Digital technology has already driven major changes. As computers in the workplace have proliferated during the ‘ICT revolution’, firms found that they no longer needed workers to perform a range of repetitive tasks. This led to a structural decline in demand for more routine jobs and an associated swing in favour of roles which require more advanced analytical and interpersonal skills. The rate of change has slowed recently. The past decade, however, has seen significant advances in the fields of artificial intelligence (AI), additive manufacturing, and robotics which seem set to unleash a further surge in automation. Indeed, one prominent study estimated that almost half of all US jobs might be at “high risk” over the next two decades.11 Fig. 4: How technology influences the way we work Fig. 5: Changes in demand for task type in the US: 1960 - 2009 Index, 1960 = 50 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2009 30 70 65 60 55 50 45 40 35 Source: Autor and Price (2013) Non-routine manual Non-routine analytical Non-routine interpersonal Routine cognitive Routine manual Technology and automation Shifting demand for skills in the workforce What we buy and how we live INDIRECT EFFECTS DIRECT EFFECTS 20 Gen Z’s role in shaping the digital economy Together with other megatrends such as population ageing, this suggests that the next decade is set to be marked by a further decisive shift towards demand for more advanced cognitive, social, and technological skills (Fig. 6). This view was underscored by the OECD in their Skills for 2030 report which highlighted the integral role of creativity and critical thinking to future work. Being able to challenge orthodoxy and develop original solutions are traits which will be increasingly valued by firms.12 12 T and Frey, C Berger, “Future Shocks and Shifts: Challenges for the Global Workforce and Skills Development” (OECD report, 2015). 13 Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development, “OECD Future of Education and Skills 2030” (Concept note, 2018). 14 It is important to note that these changes will not solely be driven by advanced digital technology. For example, an important driver for the increase demand for social and emotional skills is the increased need for caring as a result of ageing populations. By extension, the importance of lifelong learning is also set to rise, with workers required to adapt to more rapidly evolving tasks.13 In this sense, digital technology will also be a vital complement. Thanks to the Internet, we have never had such a vast array of information and learning tools at our fingertips. Being able to maximise the opportunities afforded by this resource will be vital for individuals in order to thrive in the increasingly dynamic workplace of the 2020s. Fig. 6: Projected change in demand for skills: 2030 vs 201614 % change in hours worked, 2030 vs 2016 -20% -10% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% Physical and manual skills Basic cognitive skills Higher cognitive skills Social and emotional skills Technological skills Source: McKinsey Global Institute USA Western Europe -11% -16% -14% -17% 9% 7% 26% 22% 60% 52% 21 Gen Z’s role in shaping the digital economy 3.2 DIGITAL SOCIETY AND THE LABOUR MARKET OVER THE PAST DECADE 15 As noted, our dataset contained information on job postings across all six markets in scope. However, the data for Australia, the US, and the UK offered a more comprehensive view of labour market trends over a sustained period: 2014 to 2019. Over the past decade, the way we connect has been revolutionised by the explosive growth of social platforms. The volume of active accounts grew by around 1,500% between 2008 and 2018 with increasingly diverse offerings designed to appeal more directly with specific demographic groups. For businesses, this trend has been hugely important. These platforms provide a means for firms to directly engage with and influence customers. Understanding how to leverage social platforms to market, network, and recruit has become an increasingly important driver of corporate success. A related knock-on effect of this growth, but more broadly the rise of the information society, has been the proliferation of data (Fig. 7). The rate of increase shows no signs of abating with the volume of data estimated to be doubling every two years. The commercial consequences of this development have been enormous, with firms able to realise value by offering more targeted marketing services. In parallel, firms have also become increasingly aware of the value that can be brought to their own organisations through the analysis of internal data. And, in turn, as the commercial importance of processing and understanding data has steadily risen, the need for technological infrastructure which can support the associated increased demand on computing power and data storage has become paramount. The key organisational change that has underpinned this shift, particularly for smaller businesses, has been the widespread adoption of cloud computing technology. These trends are borne out by our analysis of job postings data.15 Overleaf, word clouds describe the trends in the volume of job postings in various markets within scope with terms grouped by skill clusters (Fig. 8). This analysis shows that social media-related terms were the largest absolute contributor to the increase in the demand for digital skills between 2014 and 2019 in Australia and the UK, and the sixth largest in the United States. Similarly, the rising importance of data is captured by a plethora of related skill clusters such as ‘machine learning’, ‘data science’, and ‘data analysis’, whilst ‘Cloud solutions’ was one of the top five contributors to growth across all markets. Fig. 7: Social media accounts and global volume of data: 2010 - 2018 Monthly Zetabytes 2010 2011 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 0 14,000 12,000 10,000 8,000 6,000 4,000 2,000 0 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 Source: Our World in Data, Oxford Economics Social media users (left-hand scale) Data volume (right-hand scale) 22 Gen Z’s role in shaping the digital economy Fig. 8: Contribution to growth in digital job postings by skill cluster (Australia, UK, and United States in ascending order) between 2014 and 2019 23 Gen Z’s role in shaping the digital economy 24 Gen Z’s role in shaping the digital economy 4. IMPLICATIONS OF COVID-19 FOR GEN Z OVERVIEW • The economic impact of COVID-19 has been devastating, triggering the deepest global recession in modern history. • The damaging impact on sectors such as hospitality which are key employers of young workers has led to concerns about the impact of the recession on Gen Z, but this ignores the structural dimension of the pandemic. • On the downside, the disruption to Gen Z’s education is a cause for concern although the impact on their labour market prospects is highly uncertain at this stage. • In common with all recessions, the pandemic is set to accelerate the new wave of automation. This will accentuate the need for creativity and curiosity in the workplace—two of the inherent traits of Gen Z. • In contrast to the Global Financial Crisis (GFC), this pandemic has been marked by an upturn in start-up activity and will cause greater structural change across the economy. Heightened disruption will only minimally cost Gen Z—who have much less job-specific capital to lose—and plays to their natural agility. • COVID-19 seems set to lead to a permanent acceleration in the adoption of digital technology across society, a trend that will benefit the first wholly digitally native cohort. • One manifestation of this will be an increased reliance on remote working. Our analysis shows that Gen Z’s higher digital competence should support their adaptation to this new way of working. 25 Gen Z’s role in shaping the digital economy 4.1 THE IMMEDIATE ECONOMIC IMPACT OF COVID-19 16 Technically these sectors are referred to as “wholesale and retail trade”, “accommodation and food service activities” and “arts, entertainment and recreation” in the sectoral accounts that are used to estimate GDP. The pandemic triggered the deepest global recession in modern history. Alongside the scale of the economic contraction, the COVID-19 recession has been noteworthy for its deeply uneven sectoral effects. Across most advanced economies, businesses in industries reliant on social contact have been either mandated to shut down or seen demand severely constrained by health-related anxieties. Sectors which have borne the brunt of the COVID-19 shock are a disproportionately important source of employment for Gen Z (Fig. 9). Looking across the six labour markets in our study, Gen Z employment in retail trade, hospitality, and leisure accounted for almost 40% of Gen Z jobs in 2019, more than double the share of older workers.16 Such a gloomy prognosis has dominated much of the rhetoric associated with the crisis and young adults. Fig. 9: Dependence on jobs in retail, hospitality, and leisure: Gen Z vs older workers Share of total employment by age Source: National statistic agency data, Oxford Economics analysis 15–24 Germany 25+ 15–24 France 25+ 15–24 Netherlands 25+ 15–24 UK 25+ 15–24 Australia 25+ 15–24 US 25+ 0% 50% 45% 40% 35% 30% 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 18.0% 26.1% 31.0% 16.8% 43.9% 42.1% 16.1% 17.9% 47.1% 17.1% 44.7% 18.6% 26 Gen Z’s role in shaping the digital economy 4.2 RECESSIONS AND YOUNG WORKERS 17 H and von Wachter, T Schwandt, “Unlucky Cohorts: Estimating the Long-Term effects of entering the Labor Market in a recession in Large Cross-Sectional Data Sets”, Journal of Labor Economics, 51(7) (2019): 161-98. 18 D, Deutscher, N, Hambur, J and Hansell, D Andrews, “The Career Effects of Labour Market Conditions at Entry” (Treasury Working Paper, Australian Government: the Treasury, 2020). 19 Ibid. 20 An extensive literature has explored the extent to which negative shocks can have a permanent impact on the unemployment rate—a phenomenon known as hysteresis. Whilst there have certainly been high-profile examples significant encouragement can be taken from the path of unemployment in most OECD markets following the GFC. 21 Eric and Woessmann, Ludger Hanushek, “The Economic Impact of Learning Losses” (OECD research report, September 2020), 24. The view that economic downturns disproportionately affect young workers is far from new. Evidence from cohort studies—those which follow the same group of students over time—consistently find that entering the labour market during a recession has a negative impact on earnings and employment rates.17 Certain groups also appear more at risk including: • Graduates from less prestigious universities and those obtaining degrees which are associated with lower career earnings, on average, are more at risk.18 • There is some evidence that the recession-entry effects are more significant for females.19 These effects have typically been found to be temporary with the impact disappearing within 10 years. Despite being temporary, these costs will be significant to the affected individuals. On the other hand, it does suggest that, should countries manage to avoid a permanent increase in the unemployment rate,20 these much-touted scarring effects are unlikely to have a material impact on the earnings power and employment prospects of Gen Z in 2030. So, to what extent will the pandemic affect the long-term prospects of Gen Z? In our view, to answer this question it is appropriate to assess the likely structural implications of COVID-19. It is to this that we turn next. 4.3 THE STRUCTURAL IMPLICATIONS OF COVID-19 A loss of educational value Compared to the temporary loss of job opportunities in hospitality, in our view, a much more pressing concern relates to the disruption to Gen Z’s education caused by the pandemic. The shift to online learning has been particularly problematic for children from disadvantaged households with less or no access to the required technology. Given the importance of education to labour market outcomes, it is likely that this aspect of COVID-19 will diminish the economic prospects of Gen Z. Although a handful of studies have attempted to assess the potential impact of this change on future earnings, we consider this cost to be highly uncertain and have not attempted to quantify it here.21 This should not be interpreted as an attempt to downplay the potential significance of this issue. Indeed, in chapter six of this report we explore some potential remedies in more depth. 27 Gen Z’s role in shaping the digital economy Disruption on a new scale Whilst recessions have always had uneven effects on different sectors of the economy, the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic is likely to be more pronounced, in this respect.22 Indeed, our analysis suggests that the variation in output growth in 2020 was, on average, 80% higher than during 2009 across the six markets in scope. Moreover, even post-pandemic, the extreme events of the past 12 months may well shape our behaviour and, as a result, sectoral demand. What are the labour market implications of such increased disruption? At an aggregate level they point to the imperative of retraining and reskilling—a theme on which we elaborate in chapter six. Workers will increasingly need to adapt to new demands within their existing roles or to completely reset their career path. The costs to Gen Z of these changes will be relatively minor—by definition, they will have much less job-specific capital to lose than older workers. Moreover, as shown in chapter two, Gen Z workers’ natural agility will serve them well in adapting to such evolving demands. 22 J, Bloom, N and Davis, S Barrero, “COVID-19 is also a Reallocation Shock” (Working Paper 2020-59, Becker Friedman Institute, June 2020), 60. 23 J Blit, “Automation and Reallocation: Will COVID-19 Usher in the Future of Work?” (Canadian Public Policy Brief, August 2020), 11. 24 N and Siu, H Jaimovich, “Job Polarization and Jobless Recoveries”, Review of Economics and Statistics, 102 (1) (2020): 129 - 147. A trigger to new enterprise and automation It is said that necessity is the mother of invention, and this is certainly the case with automation. For example, past research has shown that all the automation associated with the ICT revolution in Canada took place during the past three recessions, whilst an equivalent study covering the United States suggested this figure was almost 90%.23,24 Therefore, it seems certain that COVID-19 will lead to a major leap forward in the next wave of automation. As described in the previous chapter, these technological advances are expected to lead to a larger premium in the workplace on attributes such as creativity, problem solving, and agile thinking—a trend that should play to the inherent strengths of Gen Z. Tangentially, whilst recessions are periods where many firms fail, they also often act as a spur to new ways of doing business. In this sense, downturns can be viewed as a necessary evil which help to root out less efficient firms and working practices. Looking across markets in scope where data are available (Fig. 10), the number of new start-ups was higher in three out of four countries during the first three-quarters of 2020 despite the logistical problems created for new business registration. Fig. 10: Start-up growth in 2020 in selected markets Annual growth Source: Oxford Economics France Germany UK US 0% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% -10% -20% 2020 Q1 2020 Q2 2020 Q3 2020 Q1–Q3 total 28 Gen Z’s role in shaping the digital economy Start-up growth has been strongest in the United States. As shown in Fig. 11, the GFC was characterised by a slump in new enterprise formation which remained a permanent feature of the next decade. The experience of COVID-19 has been a complete opposite, with the unprecedented disruption sparking a new wave of enterprise. New business applications rocketed to an unprecedented level during the second half of 2020, well in excess of any levels recorded over the past 15 years. 25 High-propensity business applications are those which are judged to have a high probability of creating jobs, based on a set of defined conditions. Further detail can be found here. 26 D Seiler, “How COVID-19 has pushed companies over the technology tipping point - and transformed business forever” (McKinsey Research Report, October 2020). Fig. 11: High-propensity business applications in the US: 2006 - 202025 Accelerating the shift towards a more digital economy Although there is no consolidated information regarding the activities of new enterprises that sprang up in 2020, it seems certain that many will be connected to the digital economy. The necessary shift away from social contact in the workplace and in interactions with customers has heightened the premium for businesses of a digital competitive advantage. This, in turn, has turbocharged the adoption and integration of digital technology across corporations. Indeed, based on an survey of executives, McKinsey have estimated that COVID-19 will accelerate digital adoption by seven years, on average, among firms surveyed.26 The study also highlighted a stepchange in businesses’ mindset with just one-in-ten respondents indicating that they regarded technology ‘primarily as a source of cost savings’ compared to almost half pre-crisis. Within this change, increased use of remote working or collaboration and adapting to increased customer demand online were identified as the two areas where executives felt that practical changes implemented during COVID-19 were likely to become permanent (Fig. 12). Business applications Source: United States Census Bureau, Oxford Economics analysis 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 0 600,000 500,000 400,000 300,000 200,000 100,000 Recession 29 Gen Z’s role in shaping the digital economy The rise of remote working—a mixed blessing for Gen Z? 27 J, Bloom, N and Davis, S Barrero, “COVID-19 is also a Reallocation Shock” (Working Paper No. 2020-59, Becker Friedman Institute, 2020), 60. 28 https://advice.milkround.com/reverse-mentors-press-release The likelihood of a widespread permanent shift towards a more hybrid model of remote work has been underscored by a recent academic study (Fig. 13). This showed that US firms expected ‘working from home’ days to rise to just over 20% post-COVID compared to less than 5%.27 Moreover, polling of workers suggests their preferences may be even stronger—drawing on a consumer survey, the same study indicated that, among employees who could, postCOVID these individuals wanted to work from home around 50% of the time. In terms of the consequences for Gen Z, increased reliance on digital technology as a means of communication should play to the strengths of these digital natives. Indeed, research by Milkround, a UK graduate careers website, showed that Gen Z workers had adapted better to the challenges presented by remote working such as increased reliance on video conferencing technology.28 As part of our consumer survey, we asked participants about their experience of remote working during 2019, where applicable. The selfreported impact—measured on a scale from ‘very negative’ to ‘very positive’—was described across a wide range of aspects of job performance such as meeting deadlines, creativity and communication. We also collected information on various factors that could have influenced reported performance, such as the difference in the quality and reliability of the person’s internet connection, prior experience working from home, occupational role, and general digital competence (as described in chapter two). Fig. 12: Share of businesses reporting that they have changed features as a result of COVID-19 Percentage share of respondents 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% Increasing use of advanced technologies in business strategy Increasing migration of assets to the Cloud Increasing use of advanced technologies in operations Increased spending on data security Increasing customer demand for online purchasing and/or services Increase in remote working or collaboration Source: McKinsey Executive survey Expect some change to stick/Don't know Did not experience this change Expect change to stick Do not expect change to stick 10 7 3 79 18 9 6 66 19 11 7 63 20 10 7 63 33 17 12 38 50 21 21 7 30 Gen Z’s role in shaping the digital economy Fig. 13: Firms’ expectations on propensity of working from home pre- and post-COVID As shown in Fig. 14, our analysis indicates that individuals with a higher level of digital competence were more likely to report a positive impact from remote working, all else being equal. This relationship held across all aspects of reported performance. As we have seen, Gen Z, on average, reported a higher level of digital competence than older cohorts, indicating that, in this respect, they will be better placed to fit into the new normal. However, whilst the innate technological aptitude of Gen Z will stand them in good stead for a future more dependent on remote working, we would also provide a note of caution. For young workers, on-thejob training is critical to career development and learning. 29 The chart shows the results from probability-based regression analysis. The model predicted the likelihood that an individual reported a negative, neutral or positive impact of remote working according to their responses to other questions. The results in the chart display the change in the likelihood that someone would have reported that remote working had had a positive impact on their reported performance if their digital competence score was 10% higher, controlling for other factors. To the extent that distance between workers inhibits this process, the consequences are likely to be disproportionately felt by Gen Z. Fig. 14: Impact of a 10% increase in digital competence on the reported impact of remote working by area of performance29 Percentage share of respondents Source: Bloom, Barrero and Smith 40 Never Occasionally (e.g. monthly) 1–2 days a week 3–4 days a week 5+ days a week 20 0 60 80 30 10 50 70 90 Pre-COVID Post-COVID plan 85.3 73.3 8.1 0.0 2.6 1.9 2.1 7.0 9.2 10.5 Percentage point change in probability 0% 1% 2% 3% 4% Professional development Ability to meet deadlines Productivity Emotional wellbeing Develop relationships with clients Creativity Communicate with colleagues Source: Oxford Economics 3.1% 3.1% 2.3% 2.2% 2.1% 1.9% 1.6% 31 Gen Z’s role in shaping the digital economy 32 Gen Z’s role in shaping the digital economy 5. HOW AUGMENTED REALITY IS CHANGING OUR FUTURE The analysis in the previous two chapters has highlighted two important forces at play: • The trends that will become dominant drivers of demand for digital skills by 2030 may be those which are nascent today, but which have the potential to transcend everyday life; and • COVID-19 will act as a significant disruptor, accelerating shifts towards a more digital society and promoting changes that will transform the world of work. Augmented Reality (AR) technology allows digital content and information to be overlaid on the physical world. Although its initial applications predominantly lay in the world of entertainment, it has increasingly become a tool for change among more innovative businesses. Over the past 12 months, it has emerged as one of the fastest growing digital technologies in the world, providing people and brands with a new platform for expression, entertainment, utility, and information. As such, it provides perfect case study material to exemplify these trends. To assist with our research, we undertook 13 interviews with AR experts spread across our six markets, complemented by deskbased research. Our findings underscore the transformative potential of AR. OVERVIEW • AR emerged as one of the fastest growing digital technologies in the pandemic, providing people with a new platform for expression, entertainment, utility, and information. • The characteristics of AR mean that it has the potential to drive demand for digital skills in the next decade, similar to the effect of social media platforms in the 2010s. • Its vast growth potential is underpinned by three key factors: • AR’s immersive qualities is transforming the retail experience. • Beyond the consumer economy, AR has widespread potential applications across industry that can help to support operations. • AR offers a unique marketing opportunity for brands through its capacity to attract attention and connect emotionally at scale. • Most promisingly for Gen Z, AR entrepreneurs highly value the soft skills inherent to Gen Z including creativity, agility, and an eagerness to learn. 33 Gen Z’s role in shaping the digital economy 5.1 AR’S EMERGING ROLE AS AN ENGINE FOR CHANGE To understand the current shape of the industry, we have scraped information from online sources covering over 2,600 firms to identify the geographic distribution and scale of activity (see infographic, right). It is important to note that this analysis only covers firms whose primary activity is AR. This research suggests that around one-in-four AR companies are located in the US, whilst the remainder of our ‘focus markets’ were all among the world’s top 10 in terms of volume of AR companies. A large majority (97%) of the firms identified were SMEs consistent with AR’s status as an emerging technology and, therefore, home to a vibrant start-up scene. AR SECTOR FORECAST FOR GROWTH IN REVENUE AND JOBS The AR ecosystem is dominated by small, fast-growing firms that will drive an exponential increase in revenues over the coming decade. 2018 $2.4 bn $8.0 bn $27.0 bn 2020 2023 10-fold revenue growth is forecast by 2023. 55% of AR firms are based in these six countries. They employ 97,000 people between them. 2–9 10–49 50–249 250–999 1,000– 9,999 Most AR/VR companies are relatively small, with less than 50 employees. US 25%; 70,000 Netherlands 4%; 2,000 Germany 5%; 2,000 France 3%; 6,000 UK 12%; 14,000 Australia 6%, 2,000 40% 43% 14% 2% 1% 34 Gen Z’s role in shaping the digital economy 5.2 AR’S STEEP GROWTH POTENTIAL 30 ARtillery Intelligence, “AR Global Revenue Forecast: 2018 - 2023,” https://artillry.co/artillry-intelligence/ar-global-revenueforecast-2018-2023/” \l “:~:text=ARtillery%20Intelligence%E2%80%A6,percent%20compound%20annual%20growth%20 rate.&text=AR%20Headsets%20will%20grow%20in,units%20in%20market%20by%202023 31 Based on Oxford Economics’ proprietary data and forecasts at the time of writing. 32 Harvard Business Review, “How AR is redefining retail in the pandemic”, 7 October 2020. 33 https://www.globenewswire.com/news-release/2020/09/01/2087088/0/en/Survey-60-of-Online-Shoppers-Say-They-re-MoreLikely-to-Buy-a-Product-If-It-s-Shown-in-3D-or-Augmented-Reality.html The AR industry is on a steep growth path, according to industry forecasts. For example, ARtillery Intelligence found that the sector has been growing rapidly since 2018 and is set for a meteoric rise over the next three years.30 It estimates global AR market revenue nearly quadrupled between 2018 and 2020. The next three years are expected to be marked by a similar trend implying a 10-fold increase by 2023 from 2018. In contrast, global GDP is only expected to increase by 24% in the same period in nominal terms.31 Clearly, it is impossible to predict the growth trajectory of an emerging industry over a 10-year period with any certainty. However, our research has confirmed that the growth potential of AR is vast. We see this happening three major channels which are discussed in turn: • AR will increasingly be deployed to enhance consumers’ retail experience, a trend that has been accelerated by the pandemic. • The technology’s tremendous versatility means that it can be applied by businesses across the economy in a wide range of functions. • AR holds the key for consumer brands seeking to develop and enhance their relationships with customers. Transforming the retail experience What really defines the potential of AR in retail is its utility. More sophisticated body tracking and mesh technologies applied to AR are increasingly allowing customers to gain an interactive experience of a product. AR allows users to visualise how the article of clothing, cosmetic, or accessory would look like in real life on them— such as a shade of nail paint on a customer’s exact skin tone. This application extends well beyond these segments and has already been deployed in areas such as entertainment, hospitality (such as restaurants), and car sales. For example, AR can create an interactive preview of a film, a virtual tour around a restaurant, or even allow a user to “see” what a new car would look like on their driveway. The effectiveness of this feature is apparent in the data. According to research by Shopify, interactions with AR/3D showed 94% more conversion to sales (compared to non-AR channels).32 Survey evidence from the US conducted on behalf of Threekit, a product visualisation platform shows that 3D/AR visuals helps consumers make more confident decisions: 66% of respondents said they would be more interested in online shopping if 3D/AR were offered and would be more confident in their purchase. In the same poll, 42% said they would pay more for a product if they could see it in 3D/AR.33 Moreover, with the alternative real life ‘try on’ in physical stores less of an option for consumers over the past year, there has been a corporate rush to embrace the power of AR. Fashion brands such as Gucci, Dior, Kohl’s, and Levi’s have launched AR experiences in response to the pandemic, following furniture brands such as Ikea and Wayfair who had already rolled out their AR experiences. Transformation in the beauty sector has been particularly noteworthy in this regard and is explored in more detail in the case study overleaf. 35 Gen Z’s role in shaping the digital economy HOW AR IS TRANSFORMING THE ONLINE BEAUTY EXPERIENCE The global beauty industry had a very challenging year in 2020.34 In contrast to the resilience seen in 2009, the restrictions on physical retail imposed across many major markets badly affected sales for products that rely heavily on a full sensual experience— touch, sight and smell. AR provided brands with the perfect solution to this problem—virtual makeup try-ons. Many brands such as Sephora, L’Oreal Paris, and MAC cosmetics have responded by using ARenabled make-up effects to create interactive and personalised virtual experiences. Using these AR effects, consumers can ‘try on’ a range of different products and shades of cosmetics virtually before making their purchase. In fact, as our lives have become more virtual, AR is being used to create new virtual avatars by augmenting and enhancing the way we look on video calls. The cosmetics industry is leading the path with make-up specifically for our virtual selves. L’Oreal Paris launched its AR collection of make-up lenses, Signature Faces, that allows users to use ‘virtual’ make up to create 10 different looks on their video calls. Source: L’Oreal Paris, www.loreal-paris.co.uk/signature-faces 34 https://www.mckinsey.com/industries/consumer-packaged-goods/our-insights/how-covid-19-is-changing-the-world-of-beauty L’Oreal Paris AR make-up lens for virtual calls on Snap 36 Gen Z’s role in shaping the digital economy Creating value for businesses across the industrial spectrum 35 Michal Cupial, “Augmented reailty in agriculture,” in Farm machinery and process management in sustainable agriculture, ed. E, Uziak, J and Huyghebaert, B Lorencowicz (Lublin: Department of Machinery Exploitation and Management in Agricultural Engineering, 2011). 36 Janna and Oksanen, Timo Huuskonen, “Soil sampling with drones and augmented reality in precision agriculture”, Computers and Electronics in Agriculture, 154 (2018): 25 - 35. 37 JB Knowledge, “2019 Construction Technology Report” (Research report). 38 “Augmented Reality in Architecture, https://virtualist.app/augmented-reality-ar-in-architecture/ 39 “Augmented Reality: an Overview and Five Directions for AR in Education”, Journal of Educational Technology Development and Exchange, 4(1) (2011). 40 Susan Fourtane, “Augmented Reality: the future of education,” https://interestingengineering.com/augmented-reality-the-future-of-education 41 “Augmented Reality in Architecture,” https://virtualist.app/augmented-reality-ar-in-architecture/ 42 https://blog.thomasnet.com/augmented-reality-manufacturing 43 Engineering.com, “What Can Augmented Reality Do for Manufacturing”, 2020 https://www.engineering.com/story/what-canaugmented-reality-do-for-manufacturing AR’s role in the consumer economy is, therefore, set to grow and grow. However, an emphasis on this theme is unhelpfully narrow when trying to understand AR’s growth potential. In this section, we identify examples of ARapplications across a variety of sectors. This list is by no means comprehensive but does demonstrate the technology’s incredible versatility that is set to be increasingly put to work across some of the world’s oldest professions in the next decade. Moreover, across these sectors the same themes tend to reoccur. Essentially, AR can be deployed to streamline operational processes, reduce errors, and support more effective and less expensive training. In short, worthy impacts in any line of business. Agriculture: despite its ancient origins, agriculture remains an industry which is at the frontier of technological innovation. AR has been identified as having high promise to join a cluster of technologies which support the process of precision farming.35 It has already been practically used to enable night-time farming with AR glasses used to support tractor navigation. Other applications have been devised to support the process of soil sampling and pest tracking.36 Construction: construction and engineering firms are increasingly turning to AR to enhance their operations. Indeed, in a survey of more than 2,700 construction leaders, one-in-six indicated that they used AR devices, a significant rise from just two years ago.37 Applications extend well beyond the obvious line of creating enhanced and more immersive visual designs. For example, it can also be used to assist with quality control and deliver enormous productivity boosts when dealing with the problematic issue of change orders.38 Project modifications are often costly but AR gives engineers the opportunity to see how a change to the planned layout will interact with other features of the structure and then update plans in real-time. Education and training: the potential of AR as a tool for learning has been longrecognised.39 Extrapolating from the line of argument used in the previous section, the more immersive learning experience offered by AR can become a highly effective means to motivate and engage digitally native students.40 Applications to help build spatial understanding and artistic talents are clear but AR can also be deployed to assist teachers in much more sober subject fields such as the physical sciences, with students now able to conduct experiments outside of the confines of the laboratory. Moreover, AR’s pedagogical role need not be limited to formal education. Businesses are likely to increasingly turn to AR to improve the quality and efficiency of their training. Health and safety procedures are a primary example of this.41 Manufacturing: over time, manufacturing processes have become ever more complex with production in advanced economies more likely to require the assembly of thousands of, often miniature, parts. Appropriately applied, AR can help to streamline these tasks. A fine example is Boeing’s use of wearable technology underpinned by AR to assist technicians with wiring tasks which has helped to reduce associated production time by 25% and virtually eliminate errors.42 Another important utility channel is via increasing the speed and efficiency of maintenance work. By donning an AR device, maintenance teams will be able to monitor relevant information across the factory-floor facilitating more targeted monitoring and repair services. AR also offers firms with a technological solution to certain skill gaps with expert technicians able to support onthe-ground staff from afar.43 37 Gen Z’s role in shaping the digital economy A means to engage and win customer loyalty 44 Mintel, “Augmented Reality UK” (research report, November 2019). 45 Snap Inc. Announces Fourth Quarter 2020 Financial Results. 4 February 2021 The rising importance of AR in e-commerce will undoubtedly be an important driver of adoption growth. However, potentially more transformative, is the role that AR will play in marketing and brand-building. This process can be understood through the three-pillar structure described in Fig. 15. Taking these in turn, necessary to any successful marketing drive is to make the audience take notice. In the past decade, the growth of social platforms and personal data has revolutionised the advertising sector by facilitating more targeted campaigns. AR technology has the potential to lead the next transformation in the next 10 years by allowing brands to provide a more immersive experience exploiting a wider range of senses to capture the attention of customers. Indeed, research by Mintel showed that nearly two-thirds of AR users would be more willing to click through to an online advert because it had online features such as virtual try-on.44 Next, building an emotional connection with customers has always been fundamental to businesses’ marketing strategies. Going forward, more traditional forms of digital marketing are likely to increasingly struggle to gain traction as advertisement blockers on websites proliferate and it becomes easier to turn off targeted online adverts. On the other hand, companies will be able to leverage AR’s immersive qualities to share a unique experience which can help to build this relationship. Firms can use the technology to articulate ‘their story’ in a style that can more effectively resonate with consumers. Finally, these inherent advantages will mean little if brands cannot reach a mass audience—scale will remain imperative. Familiarity with different aspects of AR has become increasingly widespread in recent years with a substantial fraction of the population having experience with AR in some shape of form. For example, across the six markets in focus in our survey, 83% of respondents indicated that they knew how to “use new lenses, filters or digital effects” in at least one everyday task. Looking ahead there are three enablers which will underpin mass utilisation of AR across a broad range of functions: 1. Open source platforms such as Len Studio have helped to democratise content creation and will remain an important driver of scale. For example, as part of their fourth quarter financial results, Snap announced that over 200 million people engage with AR every day via their platform, with the number of daily active users having increased by 22% over the past year to 265 million.45 Fig. 15: Attention, connection, and scale: how AR can help companies to grow their brand How brands seek to connect with and engage their customers The wide advantages provided by AR within marketing and brand-building Stimulating targetaudiences with immersive experiences Attention Appealing to the emotions and value of Gen Z Connection Exploiting scale to maximise reach Scale 38 Gen Z’s role in shaping the digital economy 2. In common with other Industrial 4.0 technologies, AR utility will be significantly enhanced by the rollout of 5G. The increased bandwidth and reduced latency associated with the next generation of mobile technology will enable users to enjoy richer and more immersive experiences via AR. Similarly, advances in ML and improved hardware (such as Lidar) has meant that everyday users can easily execute complex tasks such as identifying a foot to try on a shoe, or identifying skin tone and applying an appropriate shade of makeup. 3. Finally, AR enjoys the inherent advantage that experiences can be accessed through devices which, for most consumers in advanced economies, are already in situ. In contrast to VR, AR does not require consumers to purchase an additional piece of equipment, given the near ubiquity of smartphones and tablets. 5.3 WHICH SKILLS WILL BE KEY TO THRIVING IN THE ARENABLED WORKPLACE? On the face of it, Gen Z appear ideally positioned to exploit this trend given their far superior familiarity and understanding of this technology. As shown in Fig. 16, compared to other adults, a significantly higher share of Gen Z reported that they could use filters, lenses and other digital effects to support everyday tasks such as sharing content, trying on new products and navigating to their destination. Whilst the growth of AR will certainly be accompanied by a rise in demand for certain technical skills such as visualisation and deep learning, our interviews with experts and entrepreneurs have emphasised the importance of a group of softer skills to thriving in this workplace. It is to these that we turn next. Fig. 16: Share of respondents answering that they knew how to “use filters, lenses or other digital effects to…” Share of global sample by age 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% Share photos or videos with friends and colleagues/classmates 16–24 Look up information about an object or a place using my camera learn a new skill using my camera Look up directions by using my camera as I am navigating to my destination Try on new products before making a purchase Source: YouGov data, Oxford Economic analysis 25–39 40–55 77% 74% 69% 33% 30% 26% 32% 26% 20% 27% 22% 21% 32% 28% 24% 39 Gen Z’s role in shaping the digital economy Creativity is key The ability of AR to transform volumes of data and analytics into images or animations that are overlaid on the real world has opened the door to a wave of creativity. Often these can be very simple, such as the “dog filter” or “puppy face filter” that has proved to be one of the exceedingly popular on Snapchat. Kugali is a London-based media company that tells stories inspired by African culture using comic books, art, animation, and AR. In December 2020 it announced a partnership with Disney Animation to create an all-new science fiction series, Iwájú, that will come to DisneyPlus in 2022. Hamid Ibrahim, creative director and co-founder of Kugali, says the company needs people with creativity skills for the stories and the artwork as well as technical skills such as coding, 3D modelling, and graphic design.46 Creativity was central to the career of Lebanese Lens creator Georgio Copter, who gained fame through Snapchat, creating monsters partially inspired from some of Walt Disney’s creations. He won best Snapchat artist of the year in 2016. He often works with brands that give him full freedom to exploit his own creativity. He says AR technologies help with communication of emotion by being able to express a range of moods from sadness to hunger.47 46 https://kugali.com/ 47 https://www.facebook.com/georgio.copter/ 48 https://www.blnkdigital.com/ 49 https://gospooky.com/ 50 https://www.abbassajad.com/ 51 https://inesalpha.com/ Blnk is a US-based social AR company focusing on creating interactive experiences for music labels. Founder Michael Nicoll says the music industry, like other creative industries, is happy to try a new technology like AR to connect emotionally with listeners. AR lenses weave content from music videos and allow the users to interact with them personally.48 This is echoed by Tim van der Weil, the 22-year-old founder of Amsterdam-based GoSpooky, which “reimagines storytelling for social-changing perspectives”. He says brands are looking for newer and more effective ways to communicate their story.49 Agility and an ability to embrace on-the-job learning Many entrepreneurs we spoke to learned to code by looking up videos and forums while they were coding. This is an aptitude or “soft skill” they value in the people they recruit or collaborate with. Hamad Saleh Al-Othaimin, 33, a Saudi Arabian-based developer says that his beginnings in the design and development field involved designing and modifying photos using Photoshop for friends and relatives, which enabled him to develop his skills in the field. After that, he developed 3D logos, designs, and videos for YouTubers using Blender and C4D, then branched out, learning how to use design programs such as Photoshop, InDesign, Illustrator, Blender, and C4D. He channelled his passion for design and innovation into designing virtual reality lenses for Snapchat and has contributed to improving Snapchat’s lenses and filters by providing advice and educating its community. Abbas Sajad, a Lens creator based in Sydney, Australia, says his journey with AR started with Snapchat lenses and filters and as time went on, he says he became obsessed with improving his lenses and filters, enabling him “make a career out of this creativeness”. He cites Blender and YouTube as two platforms that helped develop his understanding of AR. Even today, YouTube continues to provide knowledge along with Gumroad and Skillshare, an online learning platform.50 This is echoed by Ines Alpha, 36, a Parisian-based digital artist working on 3D makeup projects with brands who has taught herself the skills she uses. She says the Internet provides an excellent base to learn while there are many YouTube videos explaining how to use different software programs that makes it accessible to anyone working online.51 40 Gen Z’s role in shaping the digital economy 6. A BLUEPRINT FOR THE FUTURE Compared to much current discourse this report has painted a relatively optimistic picture. However, clearly the consequences of the pandemic are not positive for Gen Z, or, indeed, any generation. To round off our research, informed by discussions with a group of independent experts, we discuss how different stakeholders might best confront challenges and exploit the opportunities presented by the events of 2020. PLUGGING THE EDUCATIONAL ATTAINMENT GAP 52 Luke Sibieta, “The Crisis in Lost Learning calls for a Massive National Policy Response,” February 2021 https://www.ifs.org.uk/ publications/15291 53 Per, Frey, Arun and Verhagen, Mark Engzell, “Learning Inequality During the COVID-19 Pandemic” (Research report, Centre for Open Science, 2020). 54 Susan, Twist, Liz, Lord, Pippa, Rutt, Simon, Badr, Karim, Hope, Chris and Styles, Ben Rose, “Impact of school closures and subsequent support strategies on attainment and socio-emotional wellbeing in Key Stage 1” (Research Report, Education Endowment Foundation, 2021). As noted in section four, one of the most adverse consequences of COVID-19, for the long-term prospects of Gen Z, will be due to its disruption on formal education. Despite very positive developments related to a vaccine, this disruption is likely to last for at least a year in Europe and North America with a recent estimate from the Institute for Fiscal Studies (IFS) indicating that, in the UK, this is likely to equate to at least 5% of inperson teaching time over a school lifetime.52 Moreover, the initial evidence suggests that this has had a material impact on student attainment.53,54 41 Gen Z’s role in shaping the digital economy If unaddressed, the societal costs of this ‘attainment gap’ may be enormous but will take a long period to be fully realised.55 Moreover, much of the cost will fall on individuals who are not yet eligible to vote. These features will naturally create an incentive for politicians to underinvest when correcting this issue. This urge needs to be resisted and pressure applied via the promotion of the overwhelming long-run investment case. 55 Eric and Woessmann, Ludger Hanushek, “The Economic Impacts of Learning Losses” (OECD report, 2020), 24. 56 Economics Observatory, “How can we make up for the learning losses from lockdown?,” June 2020 https://www.economicsobservatory.com/how-can-we-make-learning-losses-lockdown 57 https://educationendowmentfoundation.org.uk/covid-19-resources/national-tutoring-programme/ 58 International Labour Organisation, “Macro policy options to stimulate pandemic-hit economies” (ILO Brief, 2020), 9. Apart from securing adequate funding, there are many open questions about how this can be used to ameliorate the impact on the next generation’s aptitude most effectively. In terms of how this funding could be used, the following principles should be applied: • Small group (up to five) short tuition classes would provide a faster means for ‘catch up’ compared to more generic solutions such as shortening school holidays.56 • Programmes which target children from disadvantaged households, who have lacked access to the requisite digital technology during the pandemic, are preferable from the perspective of efficacy. • It will be important to draw from a wide pool of expertise across the education sector. For example, the UK’s National Tutoring Programme will draw on a wide approved list of partners from which school leaders can individually select.57 SUPPORTING THE ECONOMIC RECOVERY WHILST NOT IMPEDING STRUCTURAL ADJUSTMENT As noted in section four, the pandemic has triggered a downturn that has been unprecedented in scale and unevenness. Most businesses in the worst-affected industries have had to take on more debt which will diminish their capacity to operate profitably even when social restrictions have been removed and society has returned to normal. Moreover, potential permanent behavioural shifts may mean that the activities of a swathe of businesses may be less viable even when the economic recovery is entrenched. For example, if the e-commerce leap were to become permanent it would accelerate the decline of ‘high street’ retail whilst enhancing demand for logistics and delivery services. Likewise, a permanent shift towards remote working together with the non-return of a section of international business travel, that has proven to be superfluous during the pandemic, will have a structural impact on demand for transport services. Policymakers, therefore, face a very delicate balancing act. Preventing a very sharp increase in unemployment should be a priority for policymakers given the well-established trend for temporary shocks to breed long-term joblessness. However, it will also be essential to facilitate occupational mobility and to avoid propping up roles which are no longer viable. In this respect, timing the transition from employment-protection to hiring incentive and reskilling-based programmes will be crucial.58 42 Gen Z’s role in shaping the digital economy MAXIMISING THE POTENTIAL OF DIGITAL TECHNOLOGY TO MEET THE RE-SKILLING CHALLENGE 59 Bo and Marwala, Tshilidizi Xing, “Implications for the Fourth Industrial Age on Higher Education”, The Thinker, Issue 73 (2017). 60 Dhawal Shah, “By the Numbers: MOOCs in 2020,” https://www.classcentral.com/report/mooc-stats-2020/ 61 Based on analysis of the adult education and learning database at https://stats.oecd.org/Index.aspx?DataSetCode=EAG_AL. The next decade has, for some time, been identified as a period that will present a considerable re-skilling challenge that will need to be met head-on by all stakeholders—firms, policymakers, and workers. COVID-19 will accelerate and exacerbate this challenge. Although digital technology is at the root of this issue it can also be fundamental to the solution. Some of the most promising avenues include: • The potential of AR as a tool for learning was documented in section 5.2.3 and educational institutions should exploit its potential to revolutionise teaching through wearable devices.59 Indeed, Ernst Ekkehard, Chief Macroeconomist at the ILO, remarked that “strengthening resilience by leveraging the potential of AI and AR to identify and deliver new competences and skills will be key for Gen Z’s successful integration into the labour market”. Scientific and technical subjects are particularly amenable to this technology, given AR’s capacity to recreate a ‘virtual laboratory’ environment, a development which may also have a positive spillover effect on social mobility by widening access to technical education facilities. • The education market is being disrupted by massive open online courses (MOOCs) led by platforms such as Coursera and edX, with over 180 million students enrolled on courses in 2020, up by 1000% on five years earlier.60 Promoting remote learning opportunities has the potential to overcome two of the most frequently cited barriers to adult learning: the time/ place inconvenience of the relevant course, and childcare or other familial responsibilities.61 • Beyond the strictures of a teacher-student model, the potential for open source learning is vast. This message was underscored by Andreas Schleicher, Director for Education and Skills at the OECD, who considers that co-creation, crowdsourcing and crowd curation represent the future of learning. 43 Gen Z’s role in shaping the digital economy ACHIEVING A MINDSET SHIFT AROUND LIFELONG LEARNING 62 OECD, “Increasing Adult Learning Participation: learning from successful reforms” (Getting Skills Right). Although technology can play a role, encouraging an attitudinal shift will also be paramount. Looking across the OECD, the lack of appetite among adults for further learning is notable. For example, survey data show that only roughly one-in-four adults wanted to participate in learning, and in no country did this rate exceed 40%. Speaking to Rebecca Taber, co-founder of Merit America and educational policy expert, one interesting point that emerged was the potential role that businesses could play in this process. As things stand, many firms remain wedded to a system where formal educational attainment remains the cornerstone of entry requirements. Although unintentional, this reinforces the perception that informal courses are less valuable. The OECD recently concluded research which identified best practice reform by evaluating policies implemented in six countries which have achieved a significant uplift in adult learning rates.62 As remarked, this is clearly not an area where a ‘magic bullet’ exists and, in reality, the optimal approach will vary across countries. Nevertheless, certain clear messages emerged in terms of policy design in the context of increasing participation: • An iterative process that allows the relevant stakeholders a voice in shaping the structure of the reform characterised many successful programmes. This type of network governance structure was a common feature of many successful programmes that were reviewed. • It is essential to avoid a dogmatic mindset. Most successful reforms were altered compared to their initial design highlighting the need for flexibility and to continually learn lessons. • Most successful programmes stayed relevant by establishing mechanisms to update consistent with changing patterns of demand and skill gaps in the local economy. 44 Gen Z’s role in shaping the digital economy REFITTING EDUCATION TO THE NEW INDUSTRIAL AGE 63 World Economic Forum, “Schools of the Future: Defining New Models of Education for the Fourth Industrial Revolution” (Research report, 2020). Our research has highlighted that our approach to formal education has become increasingly out-of-step with the demands of the new age. Via the Internet, a wealth of information is now freely available. Despite this, formal education remains centred around the accumulation of knowledge rather than developing the type of cognitive skills which will be at a premium in the next decade. As noted by Andreas Schleicher, the so-called ‘Fourth Industrial Revolution’ will unleash a set of technologies with incredible power to extrapolate information from relatively narrow domains. On the other hand, the ability to reconcile different perspectives will remain essentially human. However, this trend runs contrary to common practice in both education and the workplace which has seen an inexorable increase in the specialisation of knowledge. Achieving such a paradigm shift will clearly be a substantial challenge but our research suggests that the following high-level principles can support: • A shift towards problembased learning: to promote creativity and critical thinking it will be essential to shift towards a problem-based rather than a process-based approach to teaching. Rather than rote learning centred around facts and formulas, students need to be challenged to solve problems in real-world situations. • A shift away from standardised testing: the conventional method of student assessment has been important for generating accountability and transparency. However, they can impose an unintended straitjacket on students’ curiosity and critical thinking skills. Finland, might offer a useful benchmark here with a system that does not rely on standardised testing, but rather pools samples of children to evaluate learning.63 • Empowering students: by promoting student choice and agency, the educational system can promote curiosity and hence entrench a culture of lifelong learning amongst the next generation. Focusing on more inquiry-based methods would involve students creating iterative solutions to open-ended questions. Such an approach will encourage students to seek to continually improve their work as opposed to identifying a single correct answer. 45 Gen Z’s role in shaping the digital economy OXFORD ECONOMICS Oxford Economics was founded in 1981 as a commercial venture with Oxford University’s business college to provide economic forecasting and modelling to UK companies and financial institutions expanding abroad. Since then, we have become one of the world’s foremost independent global advisory firms, providing reports, forecasts and analytical tools on more than 200 countries, 250 industrial sectors, and 7,000 cities and regions. Our best-in-class global economic and industry models and analytical tools give us an unparalleled ability to forecast external market trends and assess their economic, social and business impact. 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Our worldwide client base now comprises over 1,500 international organisations, including leading multinational companies and financial institutions; key government bodies and trade associations; and top universities, consultancies, and think tanks. March 2021 All data shown in tables and charts are Oxford Economics’ own data, except where otherwise stated and cited in footnotes, and are copyright © Oxford Economics Ltd. This report is confidential to Snapchat and may not be published or distributed without their prior written permission. The modelling and results presented here are based on information provided by third parties, upon which Oxford Economics has relied in producing its report and forecasts in good faith. Any subsequent revision or update of those data will affect the assessments and projections shown. To discuss the report further, please contact: Henry Worthington hworthington@oxfordeconomics.com Oxford Economics 4 Millbank London SW1P 3JA United Kingdom Tel: +44 203 910 8061 Photo credits Cover photos: Rawpixel/Shutterstock.com Inside-front: Astrakan Images/Alamy Stock Photo Page 2: qunamax/Shutterstock.com Page 4: View Apart/Shutterstock.com Page 9: Eva-Katalin/iStockphoto.com Page 11: Alessandro Biascioli/stock.adobe.com Page 12: Alessandro Biascioli/stock.adobe.com Page 18: BalanceFormCreative/Shutterstock.com Page 23: LightField Studios/Shutterstock.com Page 24: vadim_key/stock.adobe.com Page 31: JS Photo/Alamy Stock Photo Page 32: weedezign/Shutterstock.com Page 40: pressmaster stock.adobe.com Page 46: Rawpixel/Shutterstock.com 46 Gen Z’s role in shaping the digital economy 47 Gen Z’s role in shaping the digital economy Global headquarters Oxford Economics Ltd Abbey House 121 St Aldates Oxford, OX1 1HB UK Tel: +44 (0)1865 268900 London 4 Millbank London, SW1P 3JA UK Tel: +44 (0)203 910 8000 Frankfurt Marienstr. 15 60329 Frankfurt am Main Germany Tel: +49 69 96 758 658 New York 5 Hanover Square, 8th Floor New York, NY 10004 USA Tel: +1 (646) 786 1879 Singapore 6 Battery Road #38-05 Singapore 049909 Tel: +65 6850 0110 Europe, Middle East and Africa Oxford London Belfast Dublin Frankfurt Paris Milan Stockholm Cape Town Dubai Americas New York Philadelphia Boston Chicago Los Angeles Toronto Mexico City Asia Pacific Singapore Hong Kong Tokyo Sydney Melbourne Email: mailbox@oxfordeconomics.com Website: www.oxfordeconomics.com Further contact details: www.oxfordeconomics.com/ about-us/worldwide-offices La production manufacturière se redresse nettement en janvier 2021 (+3,3 %) INDICE DE LA PRODUCTION INDUSTRIELLE (IPI) - JANVIER 2021 En janvier 2021, la production rebondit dans l’industrie manufacturière (+3,3 % après −1,4 %) comme dans l’ensemble de l’industrie (+3,3 % après −0,7 %). Par rapport à février 2020 (dernier mois avant le début du premier confinement), la production reste en retrait dans l’industrie manufacturière (−2,6 %), comme dans l’ensemble de l’industrie (−1,7 %). Avertissement À l’occasion du passage à la base 2015 (en mars 2018), un processus de revue annuelle des séries de l’indice de la production industrielle (IPI) a été mis en place sur un cycle quinquennal. Il vise à renforcer la robustesse des indices et à adapter les produits suivis aux évolutions économiques ou techniques, notamment en incluant aux indices de nouveaux produits industriels ou, au contraire en supprimant le suivi de produits dont la production est devenue très faible. Les résultats de la troisième vague de rénovation, qui porte sur environ un cinquième des produits, sont intégrés à l’occasion de cette publication de mars 2021. La couverture de l’IPI s’en trouve légèrement accrue, en particulier dans le textile et dans les industries extractives. Les séries ayant fait l’objet de modifications ont été rétropolées jusqu’en janvier 2018, ce qui peut conduire à des révisions jusqu’à cette date. Parallèlement, les pondérations annuelles ont été actualisées. Tous les indices sont corrigés des variations saisonnières et du nombre de jours ouvrables (CVS-CJO). Dans le commentaire, les évolutions par sous-branche sont présentées par ordre décroissant de leur contribution à l’évolution globale de l’indice de la production industrielle. La contribution d’une sous-branche prend en compte son poids et l’ampleur de son évolution. 125 120 115 110 105 100 95 90 85 80 75 70 65 60 55 50 45 40 35 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70 75 80 85 90 95 100 105 110 115 120 125 données CVS-CJO, base de référence 100 en 2015 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 (C1) (C3) (C4) (C5) CZ Légende : CZ : industrie manufacturière - (C1) : industries agro-alimentaires - (C3) : biens d'équipement - (C4) : matériels de transport - (C5) : autres industries. Sources : Insee, SSP, SDES Indices mensuels de la production industrielle 1 sur 3 Évolution de la production industrielle Données CVS-CJO, base et référence 100 en 2015 NA : A10, (A17), [A38 ou A64] Pond. * Janv. 2021 Janv. 2021 / Déc. 2020 Déc. 2020 / Nov. 2020 Janv. 2021 / Fév. 2020 T/T-1 (3) T/T-4 (4) BE : INDUSTRIE 10000 101,2 3,3 -0,7 -1,7 2,2 -2,8 CZ : INDUSTRIE MANUFACTURIÈRE 8454 101,4 3,3 -1,4 -2,6 2,5 -3,2 (C1) Industries agro-alimentaires 1438 97,1 1,6 -2,0 -2,0 -0,5 -2,2 (C2) Cokéfaction et raffinage 116 48,6 7,2 -30,7 -27,3 -10,3 -21,5 (C3) Fab. de biens d'équipement 1186 104,5 8,4 -3,3 1,2 4,7 -0,2 [CI] Produits informatiques, électroniques et optiques 455 110,0 8,4 -2,2 0,1 6,7 -1,7 [CJ] Équipements électriques 278 99,3 11,0 -4,1 3,6 2,2 3,0 [CK] Machines et équipements n.c.a. (1) 452 102,1 6,9 -4,0 0,9 4,0 -0,5 (C4) Fab. de matériels de transport 1141 91,1 -2,9 1,2 -16,0 3,6 -15,7 [CL1] Automobile 474 97,3 -1,9 1,5 -5,4 -1,7 -3,7 [CL2] Autres matériels de transport 667 86,9 -3,6 1,0 -22,9 8,1 -23,1 (C5) Fab. d’autres produits industriels 4573 106,0 3,9 -0,8 0,2 2,9 -0,7 [CB] Textile, habillement, cuir et chaussure 199 95,4 -4,2 5,6 -5,7 0,7 -5,3 [CC] Bois, papier et imprimerie 407 95,8 0,7 0,3 -5,1 0,2 -3,4 [CE] Chimie 728 104,6 -4,1 -0,6 -2,0 7,3 4,5 [CF] Pharmacie 434 147,1 30,7 -6,7 25,6 4,6 7,2 [CG] Caoutchouc, plastiq. et minér. non mét. 676 104,5 2,7 -1,8 -1,8 2,4 0,4 [CH] Métallurgie et produits métalliques 1028 97,5 1,9 3,9 -2,0 3,0 -3,3 [CM] Autres industries manufacturières y c. réparation et installation 1101 104,8 3,0 -3,0 -3,4 0,7 -4,0 DE : Industries extractives, énergie, eau 1546 100,3 2,9 3,4 3,4 0,8 -0,3 [BZ] Industries extractives 66 108,8 7,8 -1,7 5,7 3,3 0,9 [DZ] Électricité, gaz, vapeur et air conditionné 1334 100,7 3,1 3,9 3,9 0,9 -0,3 [EZ] Eau, assainissement 146 92,4 -1,5 1,7 -3,1 -1,4 -0,8 FZ : Construction 4500 106,2 16,3 -9,2 4,4 1,5 -2,9 Grands regroupements industriels GRI (2) Biens d’investissement 3094 99,4 2,2 -1,7 -7,0 2,5 -7,8 Biens intermédiaires 2884 100,2 1,1 -0,1 -1,2 4,7 1,3 Biens de conso. durables 182 114,7 3,8 5,6 -0,7 -0,3 0,1 Biens de conso. non durables 2236 107,7 7,6 -2,2 2,9 0,5 -1,7 Énergie 1604 96,0 2,8 1,9 1,6 0,2 -1,5 *Pondération (10 000 = B…E) (1) n.c.a. : non classés ailleurs (2) Grands regroupements industriels GRI : définition dans le règlement CE 656/2007 de juin 2007 (3) Trois derniers mois rapportés aux trois mois précédents (4) Trois derniers mois rapportés à la même période de l'année précédente // Non disponible Sources : Insee, SSP, SDES En janvier, la production augmente dans toutes les branches industrielles à l’exception des matériels de transport En janvier, la production se redresse nettement dans les « autres industries » (+3,9 % après −0,8 %) ainsi que dans les biens d’équipement (+8,4 % après −3,3 %). Elle augmente de nouveau dans les industries extractives, énergie, eau (+2,9 % après +3,4 %). Elle rebondit dans les industries agro-alimentaires (+1,6 % après −2,0 %) ainsi que dans la cokéfactionraffinage après l’arrêt le mois précédent dans plusieurs raffineries (+7,2 % après −30,7 %). À l’inverse, elle se replie dans les matériels de transport (−2,9 % après +1,2 %). En janvier 2021, la production n’a pas retrouvé son niveau de février 2020 dans la majorité des branches industrielles. Elle est en forte diminution dans la cokéfaction-raffinage (−27,3 %) et dans les matériels de transport (−16,0 %), notamment dans les autres matériels de transport (−22,9 %). Par rapport à février 2020, la production est en hausse dans la fabrication de biens d’équipement (+1,2 %). Elle augmente très légèrement dans les « autres industries » (+0,2 %), grâce à la pharmacie (+25,6 %) alors que la plupart des sous-branches des « autres industries » restent en retrait. 2 sur 3 Révisions des variations (en point de %) Déc. / Nov. Nov. / Oct. Oct. / Sept. T4 2020 /T3 2020 2020 / 2019 Industrie (BE) 0,12 0,45 0,17 0,57 -0,49 Série brute 0,08 0,56 -0,15 0,58 -0,48 Coeff. CVS-CJO 0,04 -0,11 0,32 -0,01 -0,01 Ind. manuf. (CZ) 0,27 0,32 -0,05 0,37 -0,50 Série brute 0,20 0,42 -0,42 0,29 -0,50 Coeff. CVS-CJO 0,07 -0,10 0,37 0,08 0,00 Lecture : dans l'industrie manufacturière, l'évolution CVS-CJO entre novembre et décembre 2020 est révisée de +0,27 point, +0,20 point lié à la révision des séries brutes et +0,07 point lié à l’actualisation des coefficients CVS-CJO. Sources : Insee, SSP, SDES Pour en savoir plus La méthodologie mise en place pour construire et calculer l’indice de la production industrielle (IPI) est détaillée dans « L’indice de la production industrielle en base 2015 », Insee Méthodes n°133 – juillet 2019 : https://www.insee.fr/fr/information/4186908 Les traitements spécifiques mis en œuvre pour la campagne de mars 2020 sont disponibles dans la rubrique « Documentation » Prochaine date de parution : 9 avril 2021 à 08h45 Contact presse : bureau-de-presse@insee.fr Suivez-nous aussi sur Twitter @InseeFr : twitter.com/InseeFr Institut national de la statistique et des études économiques 88 avenue Verdier, 92541 Montrouge Cedex Directeur de la publication : Jean-Luc Tavernier ISSN 0151-1475 Sur un an, la production manufacturière est en baisse (−3,2 %) Dans l’industrie manufacturière, la production des trois derniers mois est inférieure à celle des mêmes mois de l’année précédente (−3,2 %), comme dans l’ensemble de l’industrie (−2,8 %). Sur cette période, la production diminue nettement dans les matériels de transport (−15,7 %) et dans la cokéfactionraffinage (−21,5 %). La baisse de la production est plus modérée dans les « autres industries » (−0,7 %), les industries agroalimentaires (−2,2 %), les industries extractives, énergie, eau (−0,3 %) et les biens d’équipement (−0,2 %) . L’évolution de l’indice manufacturier de décembre 2020 est révisée à la hausse L’évolution de l’indice manufacturier entre novembre et décembre est révisée à la hausse de 0,3 point (après arrondi) à −1,4 %, principalement en raison de la révision des données brutes. L’évolution de la production de l’ensemble de l’industrie est révisée à la hausse de 0,1 point (après arrondi) à −0,7 %. 3 sur 3 Filles et garçons sur le chemin de l’égalité, de l’école à l’enseignement supérieur 2021 9 782111 625563 1. À l’école élémentaire : l’avantage scolaire des filles est précoce, notamment en maîtrise de la langue française 2. Au collège, au lycée et en apprentissage : la réussite des filles se confirme et la différenciation des orientations s’initie 3. Dans l’enseignement supérieur : la différenciation des orientations selon le genre poursuit celle du second degré 4. À l’entrée dans la vie active : l’insertion professionnelle des femmes est plus difficile en dépit de leur réussite scolaire 2021Filles et garçons sur le chemin de l’égalité, de l’école à l’enseignement supérieur Les données présentées dans cette brochure s’appuient, pour une large part, sur les publications de la DEPP [Repères et références statistiques, l’état de l’École, Notes d’Information]. Ministère de l’Éducation nationale, de la Jeunesse et des Sports Ministère de l’Enseignement supérieur, de la Rercherche et de l’Innovation Direction de l’évaluation, de la prospective et de la performance Directrice de la publication Fabienne Rosenwald Rédacteur en chef Maxime Jouvenceau Responsable d’édition Soupha phone Douangdara Secrétaire d’édition Bernard Javet Conception graphique Anthony Fruchart Frédéric Voiret Contributeurs DEPP-A1 DEPP-B1 DEPP-B2 DEPP-B3 DEPP-MIREI SIES-Sup ISBN 978-2-11-162556-3 e-ISBN 978-2-11-162557-0 Sauf mention contraire : les champs couvrent : France métropolitaine + DROM ; les sources sont : DEPP-MENJS. En raison des arrondis, il arrive que dans certains tableaux et graphiques, la somme des pourcentages ne corresponde pas exactement à 100 %. Retrouvez sur les sites web du ministère de l’Éducation nationale, de la Jeunesse et des Sports et du ministère de l’Enseignement supérieur, de la Recherche et de l’Innovation, l’ensemble des données publiques couvrant tous les aspects structurels de l’éducation et de la recherche : – les derniers résultats d’enquêtes ; – les publications et rapports de référence ; – des données détaillées et actualisées ; – des répertoires, nomenclatures et documentation. Consultez et téléchargez les données détaillées de Filles et garçons sur le chemin de l’égalité, de l’école à l’enseignement supérieur https://www.education.gouv.fr/etudes-et-statistiques Vous recherchez une information statistique : Retrouvez l’ensemble des publications et archives de la statistique de l’éducation sur DΣPPαDoc : https://archives-statistiques-depp.education.gouv.fr/ Contactez le centre de documentation par courriel : depp.documentation@education.gouv.fr Déclarée grande cause du quinquennat, l’égalité entre les femmes et les hommes est indissociable de la vocation de l’École de la République qui, parce qu’elle a pour mission l’émancipation individuelle et la réussite de chacun, doit mener le combat des inégalités à la racine. Cet ouvrage, publié chaque année par la DEPP, nous permet de mesurer à la fois le chemin déjà parcouru et l’ampleur de la tâche à venir. Comme les éditions précédentes, cette étude confirme que les filles réussissent mieux à l’école que les garçons. Si la part des filles s’est fortement accrue dans les disciplines scientifiques dans lesquelles elles réussissent très bien, elles sont encore trop peu nombreuses à s’orienter vers les métiers de l’ingénierie et vers ceux du numérique. À l’inverse, les enseignements des humanités, histoire-géographie, langues-littérature, sciences économiques et sociales sont toujours largement plébiscités par celles-ci. Il est donc indispensable de lutter contre l’autocensure et d’améliorer l’orientation des filles dans certaines filières, notamment le numérique. Nous avons amplifié nos actions de formation de nos personnels et de sensibilisation dans les classes et en direction des familles, et nommé dans chaque établissement des référents sur de tels enjeux. En parallèle, les politiques d’égalité des chances que nous conduisons sous l’impulsion du Président de la République, au premier rang desquelles la création d’un internat par département, le développement de cités éducatives au bénéfice de 200 000 élèves et le doublement des cordées de la réussite, sont autant de tremplins vers la réussite qui ciblent toutes les formes d’assignations. L’Éducation nationale se place ainsi à l’avant-poste de ce défi majeur pour notre école et pour notre société. Jean-Michel Blanquer Ministre de l’Éducation nationale, de la Jeunesse et des Sports La publication Filles et garçons met en évidence des différences selon les sexes en matière de parcours et de réussite des jeunes, de choix d’orientation et de poursuite d’études entre filles et garçons, qui auront des incidences ultérieures sur l’insertion dans l’emploi mais aussi les inégalités professionnelles et salariales entre les femmes et les hommes. Elle constitue un état de situation nationale, que les acteurs locaux peuvent décliner au niveau des académies ou des établissements scolaires. Au début de l’école élémentaire, les filles ont des résultats équivalents aux garçons en mathématiques mais nettement supérieurs en français. Elles conservent cet avantage en français à la sortie de l’école élémentaire tout en redoublant moins souvent. En mathématiques cependant, elles attendent moins impatiemment les séances et ont des résultats légèrement inférieurs. Au cours de leurs scolarités au collège et au lycée, les filles se sentent davantage mises à l’écart. Elles subissent plus de violences à caractère sexuel tandis que les garçons subissent plus de violences physiques. Les filles trouvent les punitions plus justes et sont plus investies scolairement. Elles sont plus souvent scolarisées dans les sections linguistiques. Pendant le premier confinement, elles ont travaillé davantage et de façon plus autonome que les garçons. À la fin du collège, les filles ont un meilleur taux de réussite au diplôme national du brevet (DNB). Elles obtiennent de meilleurs résultats en français mais sont légèrement en retrait en mathématiques. Toutefois, elles ont une attitude plus proche des garçons concernant ces enseignements. Après le DNB, les filles s’orientent davantage en voie générale et technologique et les garçons en voie professionnelle et en apprentissage. Au lycée et en apprentissage, les filles et les garçons suivent des parcours différents. Dans la voie professionnelle, les filles vont davantage vers les spécialités sanitaires et sociales ou de l’habillement quand les garçons se dirigent plus souvent vers des spécialités en électricité, transport, ou cuisine. Dans la voie technologique, on retrouve une différenciation des orientations quasi similaire : les filles sont plus présentes en santé et social et les garçons dans la spécialité industrielle. Enfin, dans la voie générale, les filles sont majoritaires dans les options histoire-géographie, langues et littérature ou sciences de la vie tandis que les garçons le sont en option mathématiques. Les taux de réussite au baccalauréat et au CAP sont meilleurs chez les filles qui, en outre, obtiennent davantage de mentions, quelle que soit la série. Dans l’enseignement supérieur, les orientations poursuivent la tendance initiée dans l’enseignement secondaire. En dépit de leur réussite scolaire, les femmes se dirigent tendanciellement vers des formations et des spécialités moins valorisées socialement à l’exception de la médecine. En fin de formation initiale, les femmes obtiennent plus souvent un diplôme de l’enseignement supérieur que les hommes. Néanmoins, elles parviennent plus difficilement à tirer profit de leur diplôme. Elles ont plus de difficultés pour s’insérer professionnellement à diplôme égal et accèdent à des niveaux de poste souvent inférieurs à ceux des hommes. Présentation À l’école élémentaire : l’avantage scolaire des filles est précoce, notamment en maîtrise de la langue française Au collège, au lycée et en apprentissage : la réussite des filles se confirme et la différenciation des orientations s’initie Dans l’enseignement supérieur : la différenciation des orientations selon le genre poursuit celle du second degré À l’entrée dans la vie active : l’insertion professionnelle des femmes est plus difficile en dépit de leur réussite scolaire 1 2 3 4 4 1 À l’école élémentaire : l’avantage scolaire des filles est précoce, 61 71 80 82 83 83 87 87 55 68 75 77 79 79 79 83 Reconnaître les différentes écritures d’une lettre Comprendre des mots à l'oral Connaître le nom des lettres et le son qu’elles produisent Manipuler des syllabes Comparer des suites de lettres Manipuler des phonèmes Comprendre des phrases à l'oral Comprendre des textes à l'oral Lecture : en début de CP, 61 % des fi lles contre 55 % des garçons, présentent une maîtrise supérieure au seuil 2 dans le domaine « Reconnaître les diff érentes écritures d’une lettre ». Champ : France métropolitaine + DROM + Polynésie française et Saint-Pierre-et-Miquelon, Public + Privé sous contrat. 46 65 75 86 84 88 92 48 63 76 80 83 86 90 Placer un nombre sur une ligne numérique Résoudre des problèmes Comparer des nombres Quantifier des collections Reproduire un assemblage Écrire des nombres entiers Lire des nombres entiers Lecture : en début de CP, 46 % des fi lles contre 48 % des garçons, présentent une maîtrise supérieure au seuil 2 dans le domaine « Résoudre des problèmes ». Les performances des filles et des garçons sont comparables en mathématiques. En revanche, celles des filles sont nettement supérieures en français. Maîtrise des domaines évalués en début de CP, selon le sexe, à la rentrée 2020 (%) À l’entrée en CP En mathématiques En français Filles Garçons 5 notamment en maîtrise de la langue française 236 Filles 227 Garçons Lecture : les fi lles ont obtenu un score moyen de 227 points et les garçons de 236 points lors de l’enquête Cedre. Les filles sont en léger retrait en mathématiques par rapport aux garçons. Score moyen en mathématiques en CM2 lors de l’enquête Cedre selon le sexe en 2018-2019 À la fin du CM2 Filles 46 Garçons 64 Lecture : 46 % des fi lles et 64 % des garçons répondants en 2019 déclarent être « D’accord » ou « Tout à fait d’accord » avec l’affi rmation « J’attends les séances de mathématiques avec impatience ». Elles manifestent moins d’engouement pour les séances de mathématiques que les garçons. Part d’élèves de CM2 qui attendent avec impatience les séances de mathématiques selon le sexe en 2018-2019 (%) 6 1 À l’école élémentaire : l’avantage scolaire des filles est précoce, 533 526 521 491 531 516 509 478 Finlande Allemagne Italie France Filles Garçons Lecture : en France, pour l’épreuve de mathématiques, les fi lles ont obtenu un score moyen de 478 points et les garçons de 491 points. Source : IEA et DEPP-MENJS, enquête Timss 2019. Les scores aux tests de connaissances en mathématiques révèlent également un écart modéré en faveur des garçons. Scores moyens des élèves de CM1 selon le sexe et le pays lors de l’enquête Timss en 2018-2019 Dans les autres pays européens 7 notamment en maîtrise de la langue française Les filles sont moins souvent en retard scolaire que les garçons, surtout dans les milieux peu favorisés. Proportion d’élèves en retard à l’entrée en sixième selon la profession du responsable et le sexe à la rentrée 2020 (%) Agriculteur, artisan, commerçant Cadre Profession Intermédiaire Employé Ouvrier Inactif Filles Garçons Enseignant 1,0 1,0 2,0 2,5 3,5 4,5 9,0 1,5 1,5 3,0 4,0 4,5 6,0 11,5 Lecture : 1,0 % des fi lles et 1,5 % des garçons appartenant à une famille d’enseignant sont entrés en sixième avec au moins un an de retard. À la fin de l’école élémentaire 8 2 Au collège, au lycée et en apprentissage : la réussite des filles Les filles sont plus souvent scolarisées dans les sections linguistiques. Part de filles dans les sections linguistiques du collège selon la langue à la rentrée 2020 (%) 53 54 51 52 54 55 56 Italien Allemand Langues régionales Chinois Anglais Autres Espagnol Lecture : 56 % des élèves scolarisés en section linguistique d’espagnol sont des fi lles. 14 13 11 22 Mathématiques Français Filles Garçons Lecture : parmi les candidats au brevet, 22 % des fi lles et 11 % des garçons obtiennent plus de 14/20 à l’examen de mathématiques. Elles obtiennent des résultats nettement meilleurs en français. Part de candidats au diplôme national du brevet qui obtiennent plus de 14/20 aux épreuves de mathématiques ou de français selon le sexe en 2019 (%) Au collège 9 se confirme et la différenciation des orientations s’initie 241 Filles 233 Garçons Lecture : les fi lles ont obtenu un score moyen de 233 points et les garçons de 241 points lors de l’enquête Cedre. Les filles ont des résultats légèrement plus faibles que les garçons comme en CM2. Score moyen en mathématiques des élèves de troisième lors de l’enquête Cedre selon le sexe en 2018-2019 À la fin du collège 35 Filles 31 Garçons Lecture : 31 % des fi lles et 35 % des garçons répondants en 2019 déclarent être « D’accord » ou « Tout à fait d’accord » avec l’affi rmation « J’attends les séances de mathématiques avec impatience ». En revanche, leur engouement pour les mathématiques rejoint celui des garçons. Part d’élèves de troisième qui attendent avec impatience les séances de mathématiques selon le sexe en 2018-2019 (%) 10 2 Au collège, au lycée et en apprentissage : la réussite des filles En mathématiques 25 21 21 13 23 21 21 17 Italie France Allemagne Finlande Lecture : en Italie, 25 % des fi lles et 23 % des garçons ont de faibles compétences en mathématiques. Source : OCDE, traitement DEPP-MENJS. 91 76 84 71 Série générale Série professionnelle Filles Garçons Lecture : en 2019, 91 % des fi lles et 84 % des garçons qui se sont présentés au brevet (DNB) dans la série « générale » l’ont obtenu. Les filles réussissent mieux au diplôme national du brevet. Taux de réussite au diplôme national du brevet selon la série et le sexe en 2019 (%) À la fin du collège 19 16 16 7 28 25 24 20 Italie France Allemagne Finlande Lecture : en Italie, 19 % des fi lles et 28 % des garçons ont de faibles compétences en lecture. Le net avantage des filles en compréhension de l’écrit est observé dans la plupart des pays européens. Part d’élèves de 15 ans avec de faibles compétences selon l’enquête PISA en mai 2018 (%) En lecture Filles Garçons 11 se confirme et la différenciation des orientations s’initie Elles privilégient la voie scolaire à l’apprentissage. Poids de l’apprentissage selon le sexe dans les différents niveaux du second degré professionnel en 2019-2020 (%) Baccalauréat et diplômes de niveau équivalent CAP et diplômes de niveau équivalent 18 62 12 44 Filles Garçons Lecture : parmi les inscrits en CAP, 44 % des fi lles et 62 % des garçons suivent une formation dans le cadre de l’apprentissage. Source : DEPP-MENJS et DGER-MAA. Seconde générale et technologique Seconde professionnelle voie scolaire CAP voie scolaire Apprentissage Troisième (redoublement) Sorties* Filles Garçons Classe de 3e 71 % 57 % 24 % 18 % * Sorties vers les formations sociales ou de la santé, vers le marché du travail, ou départs à l’étranger. Lecture : 71 % des fi lles et 57 % des garçons scolarisés en troisième en 2017-2018 se sont orientés en seconde générale et technologique en 2018-2019. Les filles s’orientent davantage en voie générale et technologique que les garçons. Répartition des orientations prises après la classe de troisième selon le sexe en 2018-2019 (%) Après le collège 12 2 Au collège, au lycée et en apprentissage : la réussite des filles Réalisation du travail scolaire pendant la période de confinement des élèves du second degré, selon leurs parents (%) Encadré et aidé régulièrement 24 % 38 % 33 % 31 % 12 % 9 % 30 % 21 % Encadré mais non aidé Encadré et aidé occasionnellement Entièrement autonome Lecture : 24 % des fi lles et 38 % des garçons ont été aidés et encadrés régulièrement pour réaliser leurs activités scolaires, selon leurs parents, pendant la période de confi nement. De 3 heures ou plus 44 % 32 % 27 % 26 % De 2 heures à moins de 3 heures De 1 heure à moins de 2 heures 21 % 26 % 8 % 15 % Moins d'une heure Lecture : 44 % des fi lles et 32 % des garçons ont déclaré avoir consacré trois heures ou plus par jour aux activités scolaires pendant la période de confi nement Les filles ont consacré davantage de temps à leurs activités scolaires, et de manière plus autonome. Temps quotidien consacré par les élèves du second degré à leurs activités scolaires durant le confinement (%) Pendant le premier confinement Filles Garçons 13 se confirme et la différenciation des orientations s’initie Dans les établissements 37 5 42 11 14 42 18 11 51 13 35 6 11 28 2 2 Collège Avoir été victime au moins une fois d'un coup, d'une bagarre collective ou d'une bousculade Avoir participé à un jeu dangereux S'être senti mis à l'écart par des élèves Insulte à propos du sexe Voyeurisme, caresse ou baiser forcés Lycée S'être senti mis à l'écart par des élèves Insulte sexiste Victime d'un comportement déplacé à caractère sexuel Filles Garçons Elles sont davantage mises à l'écart ou victimes de violences à caractère sexuel tandis que les garçons sont concernés par plus de violences physiques. Proportions d’élèves déclarant des victimations au collège en 2016-2017 ou au lycée en 2017-2018 (%) Lecture : en 2017, 37 % des collégiennes et 51 % des collégiens déclarent avoir été victimes au moins une fois d’un coup, d’une bagarre collective ou d’une bousculade. 75 75 81 65 69 88 Les punitions sont très ou plutôt justes au collège Les punitions sont très ou plutôt justes au lycée Sécurité dans le lycée, aux abords du lycée et dans les transports scolaires Filles Garçons Les filles ont une perception du climat scolaire globalement positive, même si les garçons se sentent plus en sécurité. Opinion des élèves sur le climat scolaire dans leur collège en 2016-2017 ou leur lycée en 2017-2018 (%) Lecture : en 2017, 75 % des collégiennes et 66 % des collégiens trouvent que les punitions sont très ou plutôt justes. 14 2 Au collège, au lycée et en apprentissage : la réussite des filles Les filles sont majoritaires dans 1/3 des regroupements de spécialités professionnelles Les garçons sont majoritaires dans 2/3 des regroupements de spécialités professionnelles Nombre de spécialités selon le sexe majoritaire Les orientations différenciées dans les voies et spécialités préfigurent la division du travail selon le genre. Part de filles dans les classes de terminale baccalauréat à la rentrée 2019 (voies professionnelle et technologique) ou 2020 (voie générale) (%) 2 11 26 38 54 91 91 8 48 51 87 36 56 59 66 72 Électricité, électronique ST de l'industrie et du développement durable Transport, manutention, magasinage Agroalimentaire, alimentation, cuisine Mathématiques, physique Voie professionnelle Voie technologique ST du management et de la gestion Commerce, vente Voie générale Histoire-géographie, SES Physique, SVT Histoire-géographie, LLCER ST de la santé et du social Habillement Spécialités sanitaires et sociales Doublette d'options en voie générale Série technologique Regroupement de spécialités professionnelles Des plus féminisées aux moins féminisées Lecture : à la rentrée 2019, dans les classes de terminale professionnelle des spécialités sanitaires et sociales, 91 % des élèves sont des fi lles. Source : DEPP-MENJS et DGER-MAA. Au lycée 15 se confirme et la différenciation des orientations s’initie Elles obtiennent davantage de mentions dans toutes les séries de baccalauréat. Part de mentions bien ou très bien au baccalauréat parmi les candidats selon le sexe à la session 2019 (%) 35 27 29 17 21 13 16 17 14 29 18 22 16 19 7 9 13 11 Bac S Bac ES Bac L Bac STI2D Bac STL Bac STMG Bac ST2S Bac pro Production Bac pro Services Tous bac Filles Garçons 24 18 Lecture : 35 % des candidates et 29 % des candidats présents au baccalauréat scientifi que (S) en 2019 l’ont obtenu avec une mention « bien » ou « très bien ». 90 93 92 92 92 92 88 91 86 85 88 90 86 90 89 88 90 88 82 85 81 79 83 85 Tous bac Bac S Bac ES Bac L Bac STI2D Bac STL Bac STMG Bac ST2S Bac pro Production Bac pro Services CAP voie scolaire CAP apprentissage Filles Garçons Lecture : 93 % des fi lles et 90 % des garçons qui se sont présentés au baccalauréat scientifi que l’ont obtenu. Les filles réussissent plus souvent au baccalauréat et au CAP quelles que soient les voies. Taux de réussite au CAP et au baccalauréat à la session 2019 (%) À la fin du lycée 16 3 Dans l’enseignement supérieur : la différenciation des orienta31 53 73 40 61 65 70 23 41 60 28 51 84 56 STS production Formations d'ingénieurs 2 CPGE scientifiques Universités - Sciences, Staps IUT Écoles de commerce, gestion et comptabilité CPGE économiques Ensemble étudiants STS services Universités - Droit, économie, AES Universités - Médecine, odontologie, pharmacie Universités - Langues, lettres, sciences humaines CPGE littéraires Formations paramédicales et sociales 1 Du plus féminisé au moins féminisé 1. Données 2018-2019. 2. Ensemble des formations d’ingénieurs (universitaires ou non), y compris formations en partenariat. Lecture : en 2019, les femmes représentent 84 % des inscrits dans les formations paramédicales et sociales. Source : DEPP-MENJS, SIES-MESRI et DGER-MAA. La différenciation des orientations initiée dans le secondaire se poursuit. Part des femmes dans l’enseignement supérieur selon la formation ou le type d’institution en 2019-2020 (%) En cours de formation 17 tions selon le genre poursuit celle du second degré Master, doctorat, école d'ingénieurs, école de commerce Licence, BTS, DUT, diplôme paramédical et social Brevet, aucun diplôme 28 % 20 % 24 % 20 % 31 % 33 % 8 % 11 % 10 % 15 % CAP ou équivalent Baccalauréat ou équivalent Filles Garçons Lecture : en moyenne sur 2016, 2017 et 2018, 28 % des femmes sorties du système éducatif sont titulaires d’un diplôme équivalent au master ou d’un diplôme supérieur, contre 20 % des hommes. Source : Insee, traitement DEPP-MENJS. Les femmes sont davantage diplômées. Répartition des sortants de formation initiale en fonction de leur diplôme le plus élevé selon le genre en 2016-2018 (%) Elles sont majoritaires dans la plupart des diplômes universitaires mais dans une moindre mesure en master et en doctorat. Part de femmes selon les diplômes délivrés à la session 2018 (%) Lecture : parmi les étudiants qui ont obtenu une licence universitaire de santé, 68 % sont des femmes. Source : SIES-MESRI. 37 68 68 41 64 67 40 54 60 62 Licence universitaire Sciences, staps Doctorat universitaire Sciences, staps Master universitaire Sciences, staps Doctorat universitaire Autre Doctorat universitaire Santé Diplôme d'État de docteur en médecine Master universitaire Santé Master universitaire Autre Licence universitaire Autre Licence universitaire Santé À la sortie de formation 18 3 Dans l’enseignement supérieur : la différenciation des orientaElles sont plus souvent diplômées de l’enseignement supérieur, l’écart est très prononcé dans certains pays. Part des diplômés de l’enseignement supérieur parmi les 30-34 ans en 2019 (%) 22 35 42 39 34 36 52 57 Femmes Hommes Finlande Allemagne Italie France Lecture : en Finlande, 57 % des femmes et 39 % des hommes âgés de 30 à 34 ans sont diplômés de l’enseignement supérieur. Pour cet indicateur européen, la cible défi nie par la stratégie Europe 2020 est d’atteindre au moins 40 % en 2020. Source : Eurostat, traitement DEPP-MENJS. 15,5 12 9,5 8,5 11,5 8,5 7 6 Femmes Hommes Finlande Allemagne Italie France Lecture : en Finlande, 6,0 % des femmes et 8,5 % des hommes âgés de 18 à 24 ans sont sortants précoces, c’est-à-dire qu’ils n’ont pas suivi de formation au cours des quatre semaines précédant l’enquête et ont au plus le diplôme national du brevet. Pour cet indicateur européen, la cible défi nie par la stratégie Europe 2020 est de réduire la part de sortants précoces à moins de 10 % en 2020. Source : Eurostat, traitement DEPP-MENJS. Les femmes sont davantage protégées que les hommes des sorties précoces du système scolaire. Part des sortants précoces parmi jeunes âgés de 18 à 24 ans en 2019 (%) Dans les autres pays européens 19 tions selon le genre poursuit celle du second degré Dans les autres pays européens Les spécialités des diplômes sont également dépendantes du genre. Écarts de points de pourcentage entre les genres suivant la répartition des diplômés de l’enseignement supérieur dans les différentes spécialités de formation en 2018 Lettres et arts Commerce, administration et droit Ingénierie, industries de transformation et construction Santé et protection sociale Écarts en faveur des femmes Écarts en faveur des hommes 7 1 6 5 3 6 7 7 5 4 9 15 5 1 12 3 Lecture : en Italie, le pourcentage de femmes qui obtiennent un diplôme dans le domaine des lettres et des arts est supérieur de 7 points à celui des hommes. Source : Eurostat, traitement DEPP-MENJS. 20 4 À l’entrée dans la vie active : l’insertion professionnelle des 26 39 42 57 54 64 69 70 21 34 41 48 55 60 66 66 CAP voie scolaire Baccalauréat professionnel voie scolaire Ensemble voie scolaire CAP et diplômes de niveau équivalent en apprentissage BTS voie scolaire Ensemble apprentissage Baccalauréat professionnel et diplômes de niveau équivalent en apprentissage BTS et diplômes de niveau équivalent en apprentissage Femmes Hommes Lecture : parmi les sortants du système scolaire qui ont obtenu un BTS, ou un diplôme de niveau équivalent, en apprentissage en 2019 (i.e. ceux qui ne sont plus en formation), 66 % des femmes et 70 % des hommes sont en emploi en janvier 2020. Champ : France métropolitaine + DROM hors Mayotte. Source : DARES et DEPP-InserJeunes-MENJS. L’insertion dans l’emploi est globalement plus difficile pour les femmes que pour les hommes après un cycle professionnel. Taux d’emploi 6 mois après la sortie de formation en cycle professionnel selon le niveau de sortie et le genre en janvier 2020 (%) 6 mois après la sortie de formation 21 femmes est plus dificile en dépit de leur réussite scolaire 70 80 74 81 87 82 DUT LP Master Note : les diplômés des masters métier de l’enseignement sont exclus. Lecture : 30 mois après l’obtention du diplôme, 70 % des diplômées et 81 % des diplômés d’un DUT occupent un emploi stable (en CDI, fonctionnaires ou travailleurs indépendants), au 1er décembre 2019. Source : SIES-MESRI. En dépit de leur réussite scolaire, les femmes occupent moins d’emplois stables que les hommes à diplôme équivalent. Taux d’emploi stable des diplômés universitaires de 2017 selon le genre trente mois après l’obtention de leur diplôme (%) 30 mois après la sortie de formation 54 69 90 76 86 93 DUT LP Master Note : les diplômés des masters métier de l’enseignement sont exclus. Lecture : 30 mois après l’obtention du diplôme, 54 % des diplômées et 76 % des diplômés d’un DUT qui sont en emploi sont devenus cadre ou profession intermédiaire au 1er décembre 2019. Source : SIES-MESRI. Elles occupent moins d’emplois de cadres et de professions intermédiaires que les hommes surtout avec des diplômes de premier cycle. Taux de cadres ou professions intermédiaires parmi Les diplômés universitaires de 2017 selon le genre trente mois après l’obtention de leur diplôme (%) Filles Garçons A AES Administration économique et sociale. BTS Brevet de technicien supérieur. CAP Certificat d’aptitude professionnelle. CPGE Classe préparatoire aux grandes écoles. DEPP Direction de l’évaluation, de la prospective et de la performance. DNB Diplôme national du brevet. DUT Diplôme universitaire de technologie. IEA International Association for the Evaluation of Educational Achievement. IUT Institut universitaire de technologie. LLCER Langues, littératures et cultures étrangères et régionales. MAA Ministère de l’Agriculture et de l’Alimentation. MENJS Ministère de l’Éducation nationale, de la Jeunesse et des Sports. MESRI Ministère de l’Enseignement supérieur, de la Recherche et de l’Innovation. OCDE Organisation de coopération et de développement économiques. SES Sciences économiques et sociales. SIES (sous-direction des) systèmes d’information et des études statistiques. ST Sciences et technologies. Staps Sciences et techniques des activités physiques et sportives. STI2D Sciences et technologies de l’industrie et du développement durable. STL Sciences et technologies de laboratoire. STS Section de technicien supérieur. ST2S Sciences et technologies de la santé et du social. SVT Sciences de la vie et de la Terre. B C D I L M O S Sigles et abréviations Méthodologie Proportion d’élèves en retard à l’entrée en sixième selon la profession du responsable et le sexe La profession est celle du responsable légal déclaré par l’établissement. Les catégories agriculteur et artisan ou commerçant ont été regroupées car elles présentent un profil similaire. Taux de réussite au CAP et au baccalauréat selon le sexe Seules les catégories de l’apprentissage et de la voie scolaire sont présentées ici, les résultats se distinguent de ceux d’autres publications qui présentent l’ensemble des catégories de candidats au CAP. Achevé d’imprimer en mars 2021 sur les presses de reprographie du site Dutot DEPP-MENJS – 75015 Paris Les données présentées dans cette brochure s’appuient, pour une large part, sur les publications de la DEPP [Repères et références statistiques, l’état de l’École, Notes d’Information]. Ministère de l’Éducation nationale, de la Jeunesse et des Sports Ministère de l’Enseignement supérieur, de la Rercherche et de l’Innovation Direction de l’évaluation, de la prospective et de la performance Directrice de la publication Fabienne Rosenwald Rédacteur en chef Maxime Jouvenceau Responsable d’édition Soupha phone Douangdara Secrétaire d’édition Bernard Javet Conception graphique Anthony Fruchart Frédéric Voiret Contributeurs DEPP-A1 DEPP-B1 DEPP-B2 DEPP-B3 DEPP-MIREI SIES-Sup ISBN 978-2-11-162556-3 e-ISBN 978-2-11-162557-0 Sauf mention contraire : les champs couvrent : France métropolitaine + DROM ; les sources sont : DEPP-MENJS. En raison des arrondis, il arrive que dans certains tableaux et graphiques, la somme des pourcentages ne corresponde pas exactement à 100 %. Retrouvez sur les sites web du ministère de l’Éducation nationale, de la Jeunesse et des Sports et du ministère de l’Enseignement supérieur, de la Recherche et de l’Innovation, l’ensemble des données publiques couvrant tous les aspects structurels de l’éducation et de la recherche : – les derniers résultats d’enquêtes ; – les publications et rapports de référence ; – des données détaillées et actualisées ; – des répertoires, nomenclatures et documentation. Consultez et téléchargez les données détaillées de Filles et garçons sur le chemin de l’égalité, de l’école à l’enseignement supérieur https://www.education.gouv.fr/etudes-et-statistiques Vous recherchez une information statistique : Retrouvez l’ensemble des publications et archives de la statistique de l’éducation sur DΣPPαDoc : https://archives-statistiques-depp.education.gouv.fr/ Contactez le centre de documentation par courriel : depp.documentation@education.gouv.fr Filles et garçons sur le chemin de l’égalité, de l’école à l’enseignement supérieur 2021 9 782111 625563 1. À l’école élémentaire : l’avantage scolaire des filles est précoce, notamment en maîtrise de la langue française 2. Au collège, au lycée et en apprentissage : la réussite des filles se confirme et la différenciation des orientations s’initie 3. Dans l’enseignement supérieur : la différenciation des orientations selon le genre poursuit celle du second degré 4. À l’entrée dans la vie active : l’insertion professionnelle des femmes est plus difficile en dépit de leur réussite scolaire 2021Filles et garçons sur le chemin de l’égalité, de l’école à l’enseignement supérieur Au format texte : NOTE D’INFORMATION Ministère de l’Éducation nationale, de la Jeunesse et des Sports Directrice de la publication : Fabienne Rosenwald Auteure : Fanny Thomas, DEPP-B1 Édition : Bernard Javet Maquettiste : Frédéric Voiret e-ISSN 2431-7632 .n° 21.12 – Mars 2021. Résultats définitifs de la session 2020 du baccalauréat : des bacheliers plus nombreux et des écarts de réussite selon la voie, le sexe, le statut et l’âge plus resserrés Avec 760 800 candidats et 723 000 bacheliers, le taux de réussite au baccalauréat 2020 est de 95,0 %, un niveau jamais atteint, dans un contexte de modalités d’organisation adaptées à l’état d’urgence sanitaire lié à l’épidémie de covid-19. Il est de 97,6 % dans la voie générale, 95,0 % en technologique et 90,4 % en professionnel. Les écarts de réussite selon la voie, le sexe, le statut et l’âge des candidats sont nettement moins importants en 2020 que pour les sessions précédentes. En 2020, 87,0 % d’une génération est titulaire du baccalauréat, soit 7,3 points de plus qu’en 2019. Avec l’aménagement des modalités d’organisation du baccalauréat, les candidats ont été plus nombreux à être autorisés à se présenter à la session de remplacement en septembre, surtout parmi ceux de l’enseignement à distance et les candidats individuels. La réussite à cette session est globalement moins importante que les années précédentes. En 2020, l’espérance d’obtenir le baccalauréat pour un élève de sixième sous statut scolaire est la plus forte dans les académies d’Île-de-France, de Guadeloupe et de Martinique. Dans toutes les académies, les voies générale et technologique sont prépondérantes dans l’accès au baccalauréat pour les élèves de sixième. Dans le contexte des mesures prises pour limiter la propagation de l’épidémie de covid-19 et le cadre de l’état d’urgence sanitaire, les modalités d’organisation du baccalauréat ont été modifiées pour la session 2020. Les épreuves du premier groupe ont été annulées. Pour les candidats ayant suivi une scolarité pendant l’année 2019-2020, les épreuves du baccalauréat ont été validées à partir des notes de contrôle continu, c’està-dire les notes obtenues aux évaluations réalisées pendant l’année de formation. Les épreuves du second groupe, dites épreuves de rattrapage ont été maintenues pour les candidats dont la note globale à l’examen à l’issue du premier groupe était égale ou supérieure à 8 et inférieure à 10 sur 20. Les candidats, n’ayant pas pu faire valoir des résultats de contrôle continu auprès du jury, se sont présentés aux épreuves de remplacement organisées en septembre 2020. Au total, les sessions de juin et de septembre ont vu 760 800 candidats se présenter au baccalauréat en 2020, soit 1 700 de plus que l’année précédente (+ 0,2 %). Cette relative stabilité cache des disparités : les effectifs des voies générale et technologique progressent (respectivement + 2 500 et + 1 000), tandis que celui de la voie professionnelle est en recul de 1 800. À la session 2020 du baccalauréat, 87,0 % d’une génération est titulaire du diplôme, soit une hausse de plus de 7 points par rapport à 2019. Cette proportion augmente dans les trois voies : + 3,9 points dans la voie générale, + 1,6 point dans la voie technologique et + 1,9 point en professionnel figure 1. Depuis 1980, le nombre annuel de diplômés du baccalauréat a plus que triplé et la proportion de bacheliers dans une génération a gagné plus de 60 points. Cette forte progression résulte surtout de la croissance du nombre de bacheliers généraux et de l’important essor du baccalauréat professionnel, mis en place à partir de 1987. Entre 1995 et 2008, en contraste avec la longue période de croissance qui a précédé, la proportion de bacheliers dans une génération atteint un palier et oscille autour de 62 %. 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020p Général Technologique Professionnel 1987 : première session du baccalauréat professionnel 2009 : création de l'épreuve de rattrapage au baccalauréat professionnel 2011-2014 : réforme de la voie professionnelle 22,8 18,0 46,3 Évolution de la proportion de bacheliers dans une génération depuis 1980 (en %) Champ : France métropolitaine avant 2001, France métropolitaine et DROM hors Mayotte ensuite. Source : DEPP-MENJS, Systèmes d’information Ocean, Cyclades ; MAA ; Insee - recensement de la population. Réf. : Note d’Information, n° 21.12. © DEPP 1 2 Ministère de l’Éducation nationale, de la Jeunesse et des Sports, DEPP NOTE D’INFORMATION n° 21.12 Mars 2021 Elle augmente de 3 points en 2009 suite à l’instauration de la session de rattrapage du baccalauréat professionnel, puis de 13 points entre 2010 et 2012 avec la réforme de la voie professionnelle. Après une phase de transition, elle reprend une progression plus lente essentiellement grâce à la poursuite de la progression de la voie générale (+ 3,0 points entre 2015 et 2019). La hausse de plus de 7 points observée pour la proportion de bacheliers dans une génération en 2020 est directement liée à la forte progression de la réussite lors de cette session. Avec 723 000 admis, le taux de réussite au baccalauréat est de 95,0 % en 2020, soit 7,0 points de plus qu’à la session précédente figure 2. La hausse est la plus importante dans la voie professionnelle : elle est de 8,0 points contre 6,5 dans la voie générale et 6,8 en technologique. Le taux de réussite de la voie professionnelle dépasse ainsi pour la première fois le seuil de 90 %. Il reste cependant inférieur de plus de 7 points à celui de la voie générale et de 4 points par rapport à la voie technologique. Le taux de réussite au baccalauréat progresse de 6,5 points dans la voie générale, un peu moins fortement dans la série L À la session 2020 du baccalauréat, 393 700 candidats se sont présentés dans la voie générale figure 3. Avec 2 500 candidats de plus qu’en 2019, elle poursuit sa lente progression. Seul l’effectif de la série L diminue (- 600). Après avoir oscillé autour de 320 000 entre 2002 et 2011, l’effectif de présents dans l’ensemble de la voie générale a augmenté de 72 100, dont 40 900 dans la série S. En 2020, les candidats se sont moins souvent présentés en candidats individuels (- 900), et plus souvent sous statut scolaire (+ 2 900) ou en enseignement à distance (+ 500) que l’année précédente. La réussite au baccalauréat général est de 97,6 % en 2020. Elle progresse de 6,5 points par rapport à 2019. Avec 96,3 %, la réussite de la série L progresse de 4,9 points, soit un peu moins que celle des séries ES (+ 7,0 points avec 97,6 %) et S (+ 6,6 points avec 97,9 %). À l’issue de cette session, 384 200 candidats obtiennent un baccalauréat général, soit 27 800 de plus qu’en 2019 (+ 10 300 en ES, +2 300 en L, + 15 200 en S). Par rapport à la session 2002, le nombre annuel de diplômés de la voie générale augmente de 124 100 (hors Mayotte). Corrélativement, avec 46,3 % en 2020, la proportion de bacheliers généraux dans une génération augmente de 3,9 points par rapport à 2019 et de 13,9 points par rapport à 2002. La hausse de la réussite s’accompagne d’une hausse des mentions dans la voie générale. Parmi les présents, la part des admis avec mention passe de 52,5 % en 2019 à 68,3 % en 2020, soit 15,8 points de plus. Dans la série L, où le taux de réussite a progressé plus faiblement que dans les autres séries de la voie générale, l’augmentation de la part de candidats admis avec mention est moins importante (+ 10,4 points contre plus de 16 points supplémentaires en ES et S). Le taux de réussite au baccalauréat est supérieur à 95 % dans toutes les séries technologiques, sauf en STMG Comme dans la voie générale, l’effectif de présents au baccalauréat technologique continue d’augmenter légèrement. Avec 158 200 candidats présents en 2020, 3 Résultats du baccalauréat 2020 selon la voie, la série, le secteur et le sexe Présents Admis Répartition des présents par mention (%) Taux de réussite (%) Total Filles Très bien Bien Assez bien Sans mention Total Filles Garçons Baccalauréat général ES 133 589 60,7 130 389 12,1 21,2 31,7 32,6 97,6 98,3 96,6 L 56 604 79,1 54 516 13,0 21,1 30,0 32,2 96,3 96,9 94,1 S 203 523 47,6 199 253 20,4 23,7 27,5 26,3 97,9 98,5 97,3 Toutes séries 393 716 56,6 384 158 16,5 22,5 29,3 29,3 97,6 98,1 96,9 Baccalauréat technologique STI2D 34 625 7,9 33 252 4,7 18,3 34,7 38,4 96,0 97,1 95,9 STL 9 107 56,7 8 723 6,2 18,8 32,1 38,8 95,8 96,7 94,6 STAV 5 340 48,9 5 272 1,5 11,3 36,2 49,7 98,7 98,6 98,8 STMG 79 081 50,8 73 621 3,0 14,7 32,3 43,2 93,1 95,1 91,1 ST2S 23 857 86,8 22 967 5,9 19,1 34,2 37,1 96,3 96,7 93,6 STD2A 3 558 76,3 3 525 18,0 34,9 31,4 14,8 99,1 99,4 97,9 TMD 337 56,4 335 32,1 30,3 24,3 12,8 99,4 100,0 98,6 STHR 2 325 55,5 2 277 7,9 22,8 35,5 31,8 97,9 98,1 97,7 Toutes séries 158 230 47,7 149 972 4,4 16,9 33,2 40,3 94,8 96,0 93,6 Baccalauréat professionnel Production 96 602 15,2 87 019 4,9 18,1 33,1 34,0 90,1 93,1 89,5 Services 112 285 64,4 101 822 4,3 19,7 35,2 31,5 90,7 92,9 86,8 Tous secteurs 208 887 41,6 188 841 4,6 19,0 34,2 32,7 90,4 92,9 88,6 Total baccalauréat 760 833 50,6 722 971 10,7 20,3 31,5 32,5 95,0 96,5 93,5 Champ : France métropolitaine et DROM. Source : DEPP-MENJS, Systèmes d’information Ocean, Cyclades ; MAA. Réf. : Note d’Information, n° 21.12. © DEPP 97,6 95,0 90,4 94,8 70 75 80 85 90 95 100 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 Voie générale Voie technologique Voie professionnelle Total baccalauréat Évolution du taux de réussite au baccalauréat selon la voie depuis 1995 (en %) Champ : France métropolitaine et DROM hors Mayotte jusqu’en 2010, y compris Mayotte ensuite. Source : DEPP-MENJS, Systèmes d’information Ocean, Cyclades ; MAA. Réf. : Note d’Information, n° 21.12. © DEPP 2 Ministère de l’Éducation nationale, de la Jeunesse et des Sports, DEPP NOTE D’INFORMATION n° 21.12 Mars 2021 3 il a progressé de 1 000 par rapport à l’année dernière. Cet effectif est en hausse constante depuis 2016 (+ 20 300 candidats entre 2015 et 2020). La croissance a été particulièrement notable à la session 2018, alors qu’arrivaient au niveau du baccalauréat les élèves de seconde ayant connu la baisse des redoublements en seconde entre 2014 et 2015. La période 2016-2020 contraste avec 2004-2015, période pendant laquelle la voie technologique a perdu 50 000 candidats, surtout dans les séries qui correspondent aujourd’hui à STMG et STI2D. À la session 2020, la progression est concentrée dans les séries STMG, STD2A et TMD. Toutes les autres séries sont en recul. La série STMG reste la plus nombreuse, suivie par STI2D et ST2S. À elles trois, elles représentent près de 87 % des candidats de la voie technologique. À la session 2020, le taux de réussite au baccalauréat technologique est de 94,8 % soit 6,8 points de plus qu’en 2019. Il est supérieur à 95 % dans toutes les séries technologiques, sauf en STMG. Dans les séries STD2A, TMD et STHR, où la réussite était déjà proche de 95 % et même supérieure l’année dernière, la progression ne dépasse pas 3,2 points. Dans les autres séries technologiques, elle est d’au moins 5,6 points, et atteint même 10,1 points en STAV. Avec 150 000 candidats au baccalauréat technologique diplômés en 2020, l’effectif augmente de 11 700 par rapport à l’année précédente. Dans le même temps, la proportion de bacheliers technologiques dans une génération passe de 16,4 % en 2019 à 18,0 % en 2020 (+ 1,6 point). La part de candidats au baccalauréat technologique admis avec mention est de 54,5 % en 2020, soit 14,3 points de plus qu’en 2019. Globalement, la hausse porte essentiellement sur les mentions Assez bien et Bien . La part d’admis avec mention est de 84,3 % en STD2A et 86,6 % en TMD, séries où le taux de réussite dépasse 99 %. Elle est comprise entre 49,0 % et 66,1 % dans les autres séries technologiques. Avec un taux de réussite de 90,4 %, la voie professionnelle progresse plus que les voies générale et technologique L’effectif de candidats au baccalauréat professionnel présents en 2020 est inférieur à celui de l’année précédente de 1 800. Après une période marquée par de fortes variations de 2010 à 2015 avec une hausse totale de 81 300 présents hors Mayotte, l’effectif de candidats au baccalauréat professionnel évolue plus modérément (- 10 500 candidats entre 2015 et 2020). Entre 2019 et 2020, la baisse est plus importante dans le secteur des services (- 1 200 candidats) que dans celui de la production (- 600 candidats). Le secteur des services reste majoritaire au sein de la voie professionnelle avec 53,8 % des candidats. Avec un taux de réussite de 90,4 % en 2020, la voie professionnelle progresse plus que les voies générale et technologique (+ 8,0 points). La hausse est plus importante dans le secteur de la production (+ 8,8 points) que dans celui des services (+ 7,3 points). À la session 2020, 188 800 candidats obtiennent un baccalauréat professionnel, soit 15 200 de plus qu’en 2019. Ce qui porte la proportion de bacheliers professionnels dans une génération à 22,8 % en 2020, avec une augmentation de 1,9 point par rapport à l’année précédente. Tant du point de vue de la réussite à l’examen que de l’obtention d’une mention, la voie professionnelle est celle qui progresse le plus entre 2019 et 2020. La part de candidats admis avec mention augmente de 16,1 points, passant de 41,7 % à 57,8 %. Les écarts de réussite selon la voie, le sexe, le statut et l’âge se réduisent La réussite au baccalauréat 2020 est nettement plus élevée qu’en 2019. La progression est en général plus importante parmi les groupes de candidats qui ont les taux de réussite les moins élevés figure 4. Elle est plus importante dans la voie professionnelle, et l’écart entre les trois voies se resserre. Le taux de réussite de la voie professionnelle reste cependant sensiblement inférieur à ceux des voies générale et technologique en 2020. Par rapport à la voie professionnelle, l’écart est encore de 7,2 points avec la voie générale et de 4,4 points avec la voie technologique. En voie générale et en voie technologique, quelle que soit la série, l’écart de réussite selon le sexe se réduit aussi entre 2019 et 2020. Le constat est le même pour les spécialités professionnelles de la production. Dans les services, l’écart augmente très légèrement (+ 0,1 point). Toutes voies confondues, il passe de 4,6 points en 2019 à 3,0 en 2020. Les écarts de réussite selon le statut ou l’âge des candidats diminuent eux aussi très nettement entre 2019 et 2020. Le taux de réussite au baccalauréat selon le statut s’étendait de 48,7 % pour les individuels à 88,8 % pour les scolaires en 2019, soit une amplitude de 40,1 points. Cet écart est de 30,7 points en 2020. Selon l’âge, l’écart entre le taux de réussite le plus élevé (celui des 18 ans ou moins) et le plus faible passe de 18,8 points en 2019 à 11,6 en 2020. La session de remplacement pèse plus dans les résultats du baccalauréat en 2020 Les résultats publiés ici incluent ceux de la session de remplacement qui a eu lieu en septembre. Ils sont sensiblement différents de ceux à l’issue de la session normale de juin. Habituellement, près de 0,5 % des candidats au baccalauréat se présentent à la session de remplacement. L’aménagement des modalités d’organisation du baccalauréat 2020 a eu pour conséquence de porter cette proportion à 2,1 % figure 5. L’autorisation à se présenter à la session de remplacement est habituellement offerte aux candidats n’ayant pu se présenter à la session normale en raison de force majeure. En 2020, elle a été élargie aux candidats se trouvant dans l’impossibilité de présenter tout ou partie des résultats de contrôle continu lors de la session normale et, à titre exceptionnel, à certains ayant échoué en juin. Les candidats de l’enseignement à distance et les candidats individuels, par la forme de leur scolarité, ont été plus que les 2019 2020 18 ans ou - 19 ans 20 ans 21 ans ou + 2019 2020 Filles Garçons 2019 2020 Apprentissage Enseignement à distance Formation continue Individuel Scolaire 0 20 40 60 80 100 2019 2020 Général Technologique Professionnel Taux de réussite au baccalauréat selon la voie, le sexe, le statut et l’âge (en %) - Sessions 2019 et 2020 Champ : France métropolitaine et DROM. Source : DEPP-MENJS, Systèmes d’information Ocean, Cyclades ; MAA. Réf. : Note d’Information, n° 21.12. © DEPP 4 4 Ministère de l’Éducation nationale, de la Jeunesse et des Sports, DEPP NOTE D’INFORMATION n° 21.12 Mars 2021 autres concernés par cette mesure : en 2019, respectivement 6 % et 5 % d’entre eux se sont présentés en septembre, contre 33 % et 88 % en 2020. Elle a peu touché les candidats de la formation continue ou sous statut scolaire, et pas du tout ceux en apprentissage. Ainsi, la structure des candidats de la session de remplacement selon leur statut a été profondément modifiée. La part de candidats de l’enseignement à distance est passée de 5,0 % en 2019 à 7,5 % en 2020, et celle des candidats individuels de 13,6 % à 41,7 %. À l’inverse, 74,3 % des candidats de la session de remplacement étaient sous statut scolaire en 2019 contre 49,0 % en 2020 (voir Pour en savoir plus − figure 5.1). Comme chaque année, les candidats de la session de remplacement obtiennent moins souvent le baccalauréat que ceux de la session normale : 51,9 % contre 96,0 %. Globalement, leur taux de réussite diminue de 2,4 points par rapport à l’année précédente. La diminution parmi les candidats de l’apprentissage (- 12,6 points), de la formation continue (- 8,4 points) et sous statut scolaire (- 14,3 points) est en partie compensée par la forte augmentation parmi les candidats de l’enseignement à distance (+ 25,2 points) et les candidats individuels (+ 27,3 points) (voir Pour en savoir plus − figure 5.2). Dans toutes les académies, les voies générale et technologique sont prépondérantes dans l’accès au baccalauréat pour les élèves de sixième L’espérance d’obtenir le baccalauréat pour un élève de sixième s’étend de 54,1 % à Mayotte à 82,2 % à Paris à la session 2019. Les jeunes de sixième ont une probabilité d’accéder au baccalauréat qui repose presque uniquement sur le statut scolaire, et surtout sur les voies générale et technologique, très peu via l’apprentissage. Les académies de Besançon, Normandie, Dijon, Nantes et Strasbourg se distinguent des autres par un accès via l’apprentissage un peu plus important. Les académies de Paris et de Versailles font partie de celles où l’espérance d’obtenir le baccalauréat pour un élève de sixième sous statut scolaire est globalement la plus forte à la session 2020 figure 6. Les voies générale et technologique y sont aussi largement prépondérantes et la voie professionnelle pèse très peu. Cette dernière pèse un peu plus dans l’académie de Créteil. La forte espérance d’obtenir le baccalauréat pour un élève de sixième des académies de Guadeloupe et de Martinique repose sur un équilibre entre la voie professionnelle et les voies générale et technologique. À l’opposé, l’espérance d’obtenir le baccalauréat pour un élève de sixième sous statut scolaire est particulièrement faible dans l’académie de Guyane. Elle est également peu élevée dans les académies de Besançon, de Dijon et de Mayotte. Malgré l’importance relative de la probabilité d’accès au baccalauréat professionnel, les élèves de sixième de Besançon, de Guyane et de Mayotte ont une faible probabilité d’obtenir le baccalauréat toutes voies confondues. En effet, la probabilité d’accéder au baccalauréat par la voie générale et technologique est faible. Dans l’académie de Dijon, l’espérance d’obtenir le baccalauréat pour un élève de sixième est faible à la fois dans la voie professionnelle et dans la voie générale et technologique. L’espérance d’obtenir le baccalauréat général et technologique pour un élève de sixième est relativement importante dans les académies de Corse, de Lyon et de Nice. Cependant, elle est parmi les plus faibles dans la voie professionnelle pour ces trois académies, ce qui conduit à un accès au baccalauréat toutes voies confondues moins important. Entre 2019 et 2020, l’espérance d’obtenir le baccalauréat pour un élève de sixième sous statut scolaire augmente dans toutes les académies sauf Grenoble et Toulouse. Dans ces académies, la voie générale et technologique est à la baisse. C’est également le cas pour les académies de Besançon, Clermont-Ferrand, Dijon, Limoges, Montpellier et Reims. À Mayotte, la voie générale et technologique augmente de manière spectaculaire (+ 12,3 points). Dans la voie professionnelle, les évolutions entre 2019 et 2020 sont toutes à la hausse (entre + 0,5 et + 5,5 points). POUR EN SAVOIR PLUS Retrouvez la Note d’Information 21.12, ses figures et données complémentaires sur education.gouv.fr/etudes-et-statistiques 0 20 40 60 80 100 2019 2020 2019 2020 2019 2020 2019 2020 2019 2020 Apprentissage Enseignement à distance Formation continue Individuel Scolaire Juin Septembre Répartition des candidats entre les sessions de juin et de septembre selon le statut (en %) - Sessions 2019 et 2020 Note : en 2019, 99,3 % des candidats en apprentissage se sont présentés à la session de normale de juin et 0,7 % à celle de remplacement en septembre. En 2020, la répartition est de 99,2 % en juin et 0,8 % en septembre. Champ : candidats présents aux sessions normale et de remplacement, France métropolitaine et DROM, hors série et spécialités agricoles. Source : DEPP-MENJS, Système d’information Ocean-Cyclades. Réf. : Note d’Information, n° 21.12. © DEPP 5 moins de 73,0 % 73,0 à 74,9 % 75,0 à 76,4 % 76,5 à 82,9 % 83,0 % et plus Espérance d’obtenir le baccalauréat sous statut scolaire pour un élève de sixième par académie (en %) - Session 2020 Source : DEPP-MENJS, Systèmes d’information CycladesOcéan-Scolarité ; MAA. Réf. : Note d’Information, n° 21.12. © DEPP 6